P
Prognosist
Login Sign Up →
P
Login Sign Up
⚽ Football 📰 News 📈 Forecasts 📅 Today 💹 Value Bets 🏅 Tipsters 🏆 Tournament

Football Value Bets Today

A football value bet is a betting opportunity where the estimated probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker’s odds. Implied probability is simply what the odds translate into — decimal odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance — so a selection has value when its true probability looks higher than the price suggests.

Prognosist compares AI-based match probabilities with available bookmaker odds to highlight potential market edge. Each value bet may include the estimated probability, the implied probability, the expected value (EV) and an odds comparison, where EV measures how much an outcome appears mispriced. A positive value does not guarantee a winning bet, but it can help identify selections where the price may be better than the underlying probability suggests. Use value bets as part of a disciplined betting strategy, not as a promise of profit, and never stake more than you can afford to lose.

BETA
August 2026 Tournament

Compete with other tipsters and climb the leaderboard.

Open tournament

Value Bets

Picks where the model thinks the price is wrong — next 3 days across all leagues
21 picks
Turkey / Süper Lig
4 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
18:30 23 Aug
Göztepe
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
61.6%
51.6%
+10.0 pp
+19.5%
16:00 22 Aug
Rizespor
Samsunspor
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
63.5%
53.2%
+10.3 pp
+19.3%
16:00 23 Aug
Eyüpspor
Gaziantep FK
Goals Total Under 2.5 goals
60.0%
51.6%
+8.5 pp
+16.4%
18:30 21 Aug
Erzurumspor FK
Galatasaray
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — No
60.2%
54.1%
+6.1 pp
+11.3%
Belgium / Jupiler Pro League
4 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
18:45 21 Aug
Standard Liege
RAAL La Louvière
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
56.3%
47.6%
+8.7 pp
+18.3%
14:00 23 Aug
Lommel United
KVC Westerlo
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — No
53.4%
46.5%
+6.9 pp
+14.9%
14:00 22 Aug
Zulte Waregem
SK Beveren
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — No
56.9%
50.5%
+6.4 pp
+12.7%
16:30 23 Aug
Club Brugge KV
Cercle Brugge
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — Yes
70.2%
63.7%
+6.5 pp
+10.3%
Netherlands / Eredivisie
4 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
12:30 23 Aug
PSV Eindhoven
Groningen
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
63.5%
53.8%
+9.7 pp
+18.1%
14:45 23 Aug
Cambuur
Feyenoord
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
54.5%
47.4%
+7.1 pp
+14.9%
14:30 22 Aug
Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
51.7%
45.3%
+6.4 pp
+14.2%
19:00 22 Aug
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Goals Total Under 3.5 goals
65.8%
58.1%
+7.6 pp
+13.1%
Portugal / Primeira Liga
4 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
19:30 23 Aug
FC Porto
Arouca
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — Yes
52.2%
44.4%
+7.8 pp
+17.5%
17:00 22 Aug
Estoril
Rio Ave
Goals Total Under 2.5 goals
57.9%
49.9%
+8.0 pp
+16.0%
14:30 23 Aug
Guimaraes
Nacional
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
60.0%
52.1%
+7.9 pp
+15.2%
19:30 22 Aug
Sporting CP
Alverca
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — Yes
58.0%
51.3%
+6.8 pp
+13.2%
Poland / Ekstraklasa
3 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
18:30 21 Aug
Cracovia Krakow
Wieczysta Kraków
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
59.4%
51.3%
+8.1 pp
+15.8%
18:15 23 Aug
Pogon Szczecin
Wisla Krakow
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
66.8%
57.8%
+9.0 pp
+15.5%
15:30 22 Aug
Piast Gliwice
Legia Warszawa
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
61.5%
54.1%
+7.5 pp
+13.8%
— / Czech Liga
2 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
18:00 22 Aug
Slavia Praha
Bohemians 1905
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
52.0%
42.0%
+10.0 pp
+23.8%
15:00 22 Aug
Zlin
Slovan Liberec
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
54.2%
50.0%
+4.2 pp
+8.5%
Keep exploring
See public forecasts Create an account to track your picks

Value betting FAQ

What is a football value bet?

A value bet is a selection where the estimated probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker’s odds, which suggests the price may be in your favour.

How is expected value calculated?

Expected value compares the estimated probability of an outcome with the odds on offer. In simple terms, EV = (probability × (odds − 1)) − (1 − probability); a positive result points to potential edge over the long run.

Are value bets guaranteed to win?

No. A single bet can always lose regardless of the price. Value betting is a long-term approach for finding mispriced odds, not a promise of profit.

Why can AI probability differ from bookmaker odds?

Models and bookmakers weigh information differently — form, injuries, schedule and market movements. When the AI probability and the odds disagree, that gap is where potential value appears.