🧠 Model verdict
Model leans toward Sporting CP to win — 69% probability.
Also rated highly: Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%.
Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.
AI preview · 90 sec read
Sporting CP enters this clash with clear home momentum, boasting a perfect recent record compared to Alverca's struggles. The hosts' attacking rhythm and home edge should challenge Alverca's defense, despite the visitors showing some attacking promise in xG terms. Expect a lively tempo given the odds favoring over 2.5 goals, hinting at open play and goal opportunities.
- Home momentum and form advantage
- Attacking pressure vs. away defensive resilience
- Potential for goals given pace and recent trends
✓ Most likely outcomes
What the model rates as most likely in each market.
| Market | Prob. % | Pred. |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 69% | Sporting CP win |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 66% | Over 2.5 |
| BTTS | 58% | Yes |
| Double Chance | 86% | 1X |
- 1X2 Sporting CP win 69%
- Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66%
- BTTS Yes 58%
- Double Chance 1X 86%
📈 Odds movement · 1X2
72 hours · 4 bookmakers
⚠️ Sharp move on Away Win · 15.00 ↓ 12.35 (-18%)
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
≡ Recent form
Last 5 matches · all competitions
Sporting CP
W/D/L
4-1-0
Goals (for / against)
17 / 6
Avg goals / match
4.6
Scored in
5/5
Clean sheets
1/5
Both teams scored
4/5
Over 2.5
5/5
Home (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Away (W-D-L)
1-1-0
xG (for / against)
2.24 / 0.82
Alverca
W/D/L
0-2-3
Goals (for / against)
3 / 7
Avg goals / match
2.0
Scored in
2/5
Clean sheets
0/5
Both teams scored
2/5
Over 2.5
1/5
Home (W-D-L)
0-2-0
Away (W-D-L)
0-0-3
xG (for / against)
1.33 / 1.19
⚔ Head-to-Head Performance
last 10 H2H · per matchEff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.
📡 Team strength
0–100 rating vs league · season-to-dateEach axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.
🎯 Scenario insights
①
Sporting CP wins when scoring first
57%
①
Alverca wins when scoring first
67%
⚽
Sporting CP BTTS rate · last 10
70%
⚽
Alverca BTTS rate · last 10
60%
↑
Sporting CP Over 2.5 · last 10
70%
↑
Alverca Over 2.5 · last 10
50%
↩
Sporting CP comeback rate · last 10
0%
↩
Alverca comeback rate · last 10
33%
🔥 Goal timing
Sporting CP · last 10 at home
0–15
15%
16–30
15%
31–45
27%
46–60
0%
61–75
19%
76–90
23%
Alverca · last 10 away
0–15
29%
16–30
29%
31–45
0%
46–60
14%
61–75
14%
76–90
14%
First-half-heavy — over half the goals before the break.
