Match FC Midtjylland vs Genk December 11, 2025 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Thu 11 Dec · 17:45
1:0
Full-time
Genk
W
W
D
W
L
Away · last 5
MCH Arena · Herning
Referee Vassilis Fotias, Greece
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 65% · book 1.58
✗
Miss
Draw
Draw
AI 25% · book 4.07
✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 24% · book 4.20
✗
xG (open play)
2.18 – 0.57
Δ +1.61
AI accuracy
8 / 18
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.48 — +4.0% better than the market.
Midtjylland look stronger overall, especially in attack at home, while Genk are capable going forward but less consistent defensively. The Danish side should control more of the ball and create the clearer chances, although Genk’s transition play means the game can open up after the first goal. Home win with goals on both sides and a total over 2.5 looks like the most realistic scenario.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 2.48
✗ Lost
AI 42%
Implied 40%
−1.00u
⛀ Lineups
MID 3-4-1-2 · GEN 4-2-3-1
📊 Statistics
MID 1
– 0 GEN
2.18
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.57
77%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
Match recap
FC Midtjylland beat Genk 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.18 to 0.57. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 18 graded markets, 8 landed and 10 missed, for a net -0.85 units (Brier 0.232).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
18 · 8 W · 10 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.58 |
— |
65% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
4.07 |
— |
25% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Away Win |
4.20 |
— |
24% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.04 |
— |
95% |
Cashed |
+0.04 |
Cashed
|
| Under 0.5 |
16.50 |
— |
5% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.19 |
— |
85% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 1.5 |
5.10 |
— |
17% |
Cashed |
+4.10 |
Cashed
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.66 |
— |
61% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.43 |
— |
39% |
Cashed |
+1.43 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
1.88 |
— |
51% |
Cashed |
+0.88 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.48 |
— |
42% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.57 |
— |
60% |
Cashed |
+0.57 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS No |
2.46 |
— |
35% |
Cashed |
+1.46 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home 0 |
1.40 |
— |
70% |
Cashed |
+0.40 |
Cashed
|
| AH Away 0 |
3.07 |
— |
30% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away +1 |
6.75 |
— |
13% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.27 |
— |
77% |
Cashed |
+0.27 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance X2 |
2.03 |
— |
48% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 18 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 10 L |
−0.85u |
−5% ROI |
