Match AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.25 — +13.0% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 2.25 ✗ Lost

AI 50% Implied 44% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALK 4-2-3-1 · HEE 4-2-3-1

ALK · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · HEE

9 Parrott

📊 Statistics

ALK 3 – 0 HEE

58%

Possession (%)

42%

1.81

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.64

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

AZ Alkmaar beat Heerenveen 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.81 to 0.64. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 7, 10 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.47 units (Brier 0.155).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.25	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.04	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.87	—	52%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
BTTS No	2.80	—	34%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
Home Win	1.70	—	50%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Away Win	4.70	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.40	—	69%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.44	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.01	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.23	—	71%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.45	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	96%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.13	—	87%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Draw	4.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	7.00	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	23.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.38	—	50%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.47u	−26% ROI