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Home Netherlands Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar — Heerenveen

Predictions AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen April 12, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Home · last 5 W D D D D
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 14:45
3:0
Full-time
Heerenveen
Heerenveen
W W L D L Away · last 5
AFAS Stadion · Alkmaar Referee Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands
Home Win · ALK
50%
Best 1.75
Draw
21%
Best 4.10
Away Win · HEE
29%
Best 4.00
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 2.25
Fair odds
1.99
book 2.25 · +13.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 50% · EV +13.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (71%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 49.8%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 29%
Odds 4.70
Show model details
Implied probability 21.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 21.2%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 48.1%
Odds 2.04
Show model details
Implied probability 49%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 51.9%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 31.1%
Odds 3.01
Show model details
Implied probability 33.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.4%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 86.7%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 13.3%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 3.6%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 33.5%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 66.5%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 29%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 49.8%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 50.2%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71%
Odds 1.23
Show model details
Implied probability 81.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
ALK – HEE @ 2.25
+13.0%
Edge
Forecast →