Match Sporting CP vs Guimaraes May 4, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 6.26 — +7.3% better than the market.

Sporting CP holds a clear quality edge over Guimaraes, boosted by a solid home momentum and a compact defensive block that challenges Guimaraes' moderate attack. Despite Guimaraes' recent wins, Sporting's home advantage and superior offensive firepower suggest they will control the pace and create more chances. The match hints at a moderately open game with both sides likely to find the net, supported by Sporting's pressing edge and Guimaraes' resilience.

Strong home form and defensive solidity for Sporting
Guimaraes' recent positive run adds competitive tension
Moderate tempo expected with goal-scoring opportunities for both

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Draw

Draw @ 6.26 ✗ Lost

AI 17% Implied 16% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SPO 4-2-3-1 · GUI 4-2-3-1

SPO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · GUI

97 Suárez ⚽

Subs used · SPO

46'

Guilherme ↑ ·

Morita ↓

70'

Santos ↑ ·

Catamo ↓

78'

Kochorashvili ↑ ·

Pote ↓

78'

Quenda ↑ ·

Trincao ↓

82'

Diomande ↑ ·

Inacio ↓

Subs used · GUI

46'

Nogueira ↑ ·

Sousa ↓

62'

Ndoye ↑ ·

Gustavo ↓

62'

Camara ↑ ·

Nogueira ↓

79'

Arcanjo ↑ ·

Saviolo ↓

85'

Blanco ↑ ·

Samu ↓

📊 Statistics

SPO 5 – 1 GUI

51%

Possession (%)

49%

4.22

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.52

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 5 – 1

▮

D. Sousa

Yellow Card

G. Inacio

Assist · L. Suarez · 1–0

⚽

D. Braganca

Assist · H. Morita · 2–0

⚽

23'

30'

▮

N. Saviolo

Yellow Card

M. Araujo

Assist · Z. Debast · 3–0

⚽

45+1'

Half-time · 3 – 0

Luis Guilherme ↓ · H. Morita ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

⇄

G. Nogueira ↓ · D. Sousa ↑

Substitution 1

60'

▮

Thiago Balieiro

Yellow Card

L. Suarez

Assist · Pote · 4–0

⚽

61'

62'

⇄

A. Ndoye ↓ · Gustavo ↑

Substitution 2

62'

⇄

O. Camara ↓ · M. Nogueira ↑

Substitution 3

N. Santos ↓ · G. Catamo ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

Luis Guilherme

Assist · L. Suarez · 5–0

⚽

74'

G. Kochorashvili ↓ · Pote ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

78'

G. Quenda ↓ · Trincao ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

79'

⇄

T. Arcanjo ↓ · N. Saviolo ↑

Substitution 4

O. Diomande ↓ · G. Inacio ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

85'

⚽

Z. Debast

Own goal · 5–1

85'

⇄

F. Blanco ↓ · Samu ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 5 – 1

Match recap

Sporting CP beat Guimaraes 5–1 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 4.22 to 0.52. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Inacio (9'), D. Braganca (23'), M. Araujo (45+1'), L. Suarez (61'), Luis Guilherme (74'), Z. Debast (85').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.78 units (Brier 0.088).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.91	1.82	55%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.26	2.15	46%	Cashed	+1.26	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.70	1.67	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.63	2.60	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.91	1.90	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.26	5.92	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.06	1.04	93%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.50	1.44	66%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Home Win	1.29	1.25	76%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.04	1.04	76%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	96%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.14	1.12	85%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.86	3.77	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.00	5.99	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	17.50	18.87	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	11.00	10.99	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	7.30	7.58	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.78u	−34% ROI