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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Sporting CP — Guimaraes

Predictions Sporting CP vs Guimaraes May 4, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Home · last 5 D D W W W
Kick-off
Mon 04 May · 19:15
5:1
Full-time
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
W W L L L Away · last 5
Estádio da Luz · Lisbon Referee A. Nobre
Home Win · SPO
76%
Best 1.33
Draw
17%
Best 6.25
Away Win · GUI
7%
Best 9.95
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.26
Fair odds
5.83
book 6.26 · +7.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 17% · EV +7.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (76%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 17.1%
Odds 6.26
Show model details
Implied probability 16%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 76.2%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 6.6%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 45.7%
Odds 2.26
Show model details
Implied probability 44.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 33.7%
Odds 2.63
Show model details
Implied probability 38%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 66.4%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.7%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 85.1%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 14.9%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.3%
Odds 17.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 45.4%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 76.2%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 6.6%
Odds 7.30
Show model details
Implied probability 13.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.4%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 23.8%
Odds 3.86
Show model details
Implied probability 25.9%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
SPO – GUI @ 6.26
+7.3%
Edge
Forecast →