Match Alverca vs Arouca April 24, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.61 — +9.9% better than the market.

Alverca hosts Arouca in a clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge, but the home side’s defensive solidity and recent home form offer a pressing edge. Alverca’s compact backline could frustrate Arouca’s moderate attack, while the home team’s better recent points per game hints at momentum. Expect a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances, leaning towards a tight contest under a balanced pace.

Alverca’s strong defensive shape vs Arouca’s modest offense
Home momentum from recent results
Balanced tempo suggests cautious approach

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.61 ✗ Lost

AI 30% Implied 28% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALV 3-4-2-1 · ARO 4-2-3-1

ALV · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · ARO

91 Lima

Subs used · ALV

68'

Marezi ↑ ·

Lima ↓

68'

Baseya ↑ ·

Gomez ↓

82'

Gui ↑ ·

Figueiredo ↓

90+1'

Spencer ↑ ·

Chiquinho ↓

90+1'

Moreira ↑ ·

Rhaldney ↓

Subs used · ARO

60'

Trezza ↑ ·

Gozalbez ↓

75'

Santos ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

75'

Flores ↑ ·

Lee ↓

83'

Mayulu ↑ ·

Rocha ↓

83'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Fukui ↓

📊 Statistics

ALV 2 – 1 ARO

36%

Possession (%)

64%

1.06

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.88

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 2 – 1

Naves

Assist · N. Touaizi · 1–0

⚽

35'

▮

Tiago Esgaio

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

49'

⚽

E. van Ee

Assist · B. Kuipers · 1–1

60'

⇄

A. Trezza ↓ · P. Gozalbez ↑

Substitution 1

61'

▮

Jose Fontán

Yellow Card

67'

▮

Matías Rocha

Yellow Card

Marezi ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

S. Baseya ↓ · S. Gomez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

68'

70'

▮

Espen Van Ee

Yellow Card

Marezi

Assist · Chiquinho · 2–1

⚽

71'

75'

⇄

Pedro Santos ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 2

75'

⇄

M. Flores ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 3

D. Gui ↓ · Figueiredo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

82'

83'

⇄

F. Mayulu ↓ · M. Rocha ↑

Substitution 4

83'

⇄

B. Mansilla ↓ · T. Fukui ↑

Substitution 5

89'

▮

Alfonso Trezza

Yellow Card

D. Spencer ↓ · Chiquinho ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+1'

V. Moreira ↓ · Rhaldney ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

90+6'

▮

Pedro Santos

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Alverca beat Arouca 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 84% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 7, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Naves (9'), E. van Ee (49'), Marezi (71').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.11 units (Brier 0.195).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.12	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.63	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.90	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.29	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.00	—	44%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.73	—	49%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Home Win	2.36	—	34%	Cashed	+1.36	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.69	—	34%	Cashed	+0.69	Cashed
Away Win	3.25	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.61	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.38	—	61%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.35	—	76%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	90%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	3.40	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.31	—	70%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.40	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.11u	−24% ROI