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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Alverca — Arouca

Predictions Alverca vs Arouca April 24, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L W L D L
Kick-off
Fri 24 Apr · 19:15
2:1
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverca do Ribatejo Referee Diogo Rosa, Portugal
Home Win · ALV
34%
Best 2.30
Draw
27%
Best 3.41
Away Win · ARO
39%
Best 3.40
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.61
Fair odds
3.28
book 3.61 · +9.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 30% · EV +9.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (70%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win
Probability 34.1%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Best in group
Probability 38.9%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.9%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 56.3%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 52.6%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 43.7%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 30.5%
Odds 3.61
Show model details
Implied probability 27.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 76.4%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 9.9%
Odds 10.50
Show model details
Implied probability 9.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.1%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 23.7%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 51.5%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 48.5%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 38.9%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 34.1%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.63
Show model details
Implied probability 61.4%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ALV – ARO @ 3.61
+9.9%
Edge
Forecast →