Match Benfica vs Nacional April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 3.25 — +10.8% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 3.25 ✓ Cashed

AI 34% Implied 31% +2.25u

+225%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BEN 4-2-3-1 · NAC 4-3-3

BEN · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · NAC

14 Pavlidis

Subs used · BEN

77'

Ivanovic ↑ ·

Pavlidis ↓

78'

Aursnes ↑ ·

Silva ↓

78'

Lukebakio ↑ ·

Prestianni ↓

79'

Barrenechea ↑ ·

Rios ↓

90+2'

Moreira ↑ ·

Schjelderup ↓

Subs used · NAC

61'

Soares ↑ ·

Dias ↓

61'

Ruan ↑ ·

Witi ↓

83'

Silva ↑ ·

Labidi ↓

83'

Vallier ↑ ·

Gomes ↓

90+1'

Aurelio ↑ ·

Junior ↓

📊 Statistics

BEN 2 – 0 NAC

58%

Possession (%)

42%

3.43

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.25

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 2 – 0

A. Schjelderup

Assist · G. Prestianni · 1–0

⚽

Rafa Silva

Assist · G. Prestianni · 2–0

⚽

14'

Samuel Dahl

Yellow Card

▮

22'

Half-time · 2 – 0

50'

▮

Witi

Yellow Card

56'

▮

Léo Santos

Yellow Card

58'

▮

Matheus Dias

Yellow Card

61'

⇄

F. Soares ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

Pablo Ruan ↓ · Witi ↑

Substitution 2

F. Ivanovic ↓ · V. Pavlidis ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

77'

F. Aursnes ↓ · Rafa Silva ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

78'

D. Lukebakio ↓ · G. Prestianni ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

78'

E. Barrenechea ↓ · R. Rios ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

83'

⇄

J. Silva ↓ · C. Labidi ↑

Substitution 3

83'

⇄

L. Vallier ↓ · Jose Gomes ↑

Substitution 4

90'

▮

Joel Silva

Yellow Card

90+1'

⇄

J. Aurelio ↓ · Daniel Junior ↑

Substitution 5

G. Moreira ↓ · A. Schjelderup ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+2'

90+4'

▮

Lenny Vallier

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Benfica beat Nacional 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.43 to 0.25. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 7, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 15 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Schjelderup (3'), Rafa Silva (14').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.64 units (Brier 0.112).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.95	—	55%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.08	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.80	—	50%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Over 3.5	1.96	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	10.10	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.25	—	34%	Cashed	+2.25	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.03	—	97%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.16	—	84%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.03	—	84%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Under 1.5	7.00	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	6.40	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	25.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	96%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.12	—	85%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.38	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	21.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	12.50	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.64u	−27% ROI