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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Benfica — Nacional

Predictions Benfica vs Nacional April 12, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Benfica
Benfica
Home · last 5 W W D D W
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 17:00
2:0
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Referee Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
Home Win · BEN
84%
Best 1.15
Draw
12%
Best 7.91
Away Win · NAC
4%
Best 15.00
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 3.25
Fair odds
2.93
book 3.25 · +10.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 34% · EV +10.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (66%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 12.3%
Odds 10.10
Show model details
Implied probability 9.9%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 84.2%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 3.5%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 55.5%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 44.5%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 34.1%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 15.4%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4%
Odds 25.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.6%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 50%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 50%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 84.2%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 3.5%
Odds 12.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 96.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 15.8%
Odds 6.40
Show model details
Implied probability 15.6%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
BEN – NAC @ 3.25
+10.8%
Edge
Forecast →