Match Arouca vs Guimaraes February 7, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.25 — +14.4% better than the market.

Primeira Liga Preview: Arouca vs Guimaraes

Arouca hosts Guimaraes in a tightly matched contest where the away side holds a slight quality edge. Guimaraes’ stronger attack faces a resilient Arouca defense, suggesting a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. Recent form favors Guimaraes slightly, but Arouca’s home momentum and compact block could keep this close. Expect a measured pace with a leaning towards a low-scoring affair.

Guimaraes’ offensive edge vs Arouca’s solid defense
Home momentum balancing away quality
Likely cautious tempo with few goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.25 ✗ Lost

AI 35% Implied 31% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · GUI 4-2-3-1

ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · GUI

17 Barbero ⚽

Subs used · ARO

78'

Nandin ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

84'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

Lee ↓

84'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Trezza ↓

89'

Puche ↑ ·

Djouahra ↓

89'

Santiago Perez ↑ ·

Fukui ↓

Subs used · GUI

46'

Mitrovic ↑ ·

Samu ↓

65'

Gustavo ↑ ·

Camara ↓

78'

Arcanjo ↑ ·

Beni ↓

78'

Blanco ↑ ·

Oliveira ↓

86'

Lebedenko ↑ ·

I. Mendes ↓

📊 Statistics

ARO 3 – 2 GUI

51%

Possession (%)

49%

1.72

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.68

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

77%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 3 – 2

22'

▮

Samu

Yellow Card

26'

⚽

N. Saviolo

0–1

30'

⚽

O. Camara

Assist · Samu · 0–2

A. Trezza

Assist · J. Fontan · 1–2

⚽

45'

Half-time · 1 – 2

46'

⇄

M. Mitrovic ↓ · Samu ↑

Substitution 1

Bas Kuipers

Yellow Card

▮

53'

I. Barbero

Assist · N. Djouahra · 2–2

⚽

56'

65'

⇄

Gustavo ↓ · O. Camara ↑

Substitution 2

73'

▮

Beni Mukendi

Yellow Card

H. Lee

3–2

⚽

74'

D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

78'

⇄

T. Arcanjo ↓ · Beni ↑

Substitution 3

78'

⇄

F. Blanco ↓ · N. Oliveira ↑

Substitution 4

83'

▮

Diogo Sousa

Yellow Card

P. Gozalbez ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

84'

B. Mansilla ↓ · A. Trezza ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

84'

86'

⇄

O. Lebedenko ↓ · J. I. Mendes ↑

Substitution 5

88'

▮

Rodrigo Abascal

Yellow Card

Puche ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

89'

J. Santiago Perez ↓ · T. Fukui ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

89'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Arouca beat Guimaraes 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–2.

From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Saviolo (26'), O. Camara (30'), A. Trezza (45'), I. Barbero (56'), H. Lee (74').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.75 units (Brier 0.302).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.75	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.92	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.32	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.65	—	55%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	44%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.17	—	39%	Cashed	+1.17	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.65	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.29	—	29%	Cashed	+1.29	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.25	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.38	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.27	—	81%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	88%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Home Win	3.26	—	29%	Cashed	+2.26	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.39	—	65%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Draw	3.41	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.00	—	19%	Cashed	+3.00	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.75u	+4% ROI