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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Guimaraes

Predictions Arouca vs Guimaraes February 7, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 07 Feb · 20:30
3:2
Full-time
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
W W L L L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal
Home Win · ARO
29%
Best 2.78
Draw
26%
Best 3.15
Away Win · GUI
45%
Best 2.55
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.25
Fair odds
2.84
book 3.25 · +14.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 35% · EV +14.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (65%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 44.8%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 29.1%
Odds 3.26
Show model details
Implied probability 30.7%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.1%
Odds 3.41
Show model details
Implied probability 29.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 61.4%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 38.6%
Odds 2.17
Show model details
Implied probability 46.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 35.2%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 11.9%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 80.7%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.1%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 64.8%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 19.3%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 55.8%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 44.2%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 44.8%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 29.1%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 55.2%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 70.9%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ARO – GUI @ 3.25
+14.4%
Edge
Forecast →