Match Napoli vs Chelsea January 28, 2026 — Result and Stats
Napoli
Home · last 5
D
W
L
D
L
Kick-off
Wed 28 Jan · 20:00
2:3
Full-time
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona · Napoli
Referee Clement Turpin, France
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 50% · book 2.02
✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 49% · book 2.20
✗
Miss
Draw
Draw
AI 30% · book 3.56
✗
xG (open play)
0.98 – 2.01
Δ −1.03
AI accuracy
7 / 14
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks BTTS No at 2.20 — +8.0% better than the market.
Napoli vs Chelsea looks like a tight, tactical battle where small moments decide it. Napoli should be comfortable at home and can control phases through patient build-up, but Chelsea arrive in stronger rhythm and look more reliable in transition. With both sides set up to protect the middle and limit clean looks, this match can swing on set pieces, second balls and a single defensive mistake. A draw is a very live outcome, while Chelsea have enough punch to edge it if the game opens up.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.20
✗ Lost
AI 49%
Implied 46%
−1.00u
⛀ Lineups
NAP 3-4-2-1 · CHE 4-2-3-1
📊 Statistics
NAP 2
– 3 CHE
0.98
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
2.01
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
89%
Match recap
Chelsea won 3–2 away at Napoli. At half-time it was 2–1.
On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.01 to 0.98. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 14 graded markets, 7 landed and 7 missed, for a net -1.84 units (Brier 0.231).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
14 · 7 W · 7 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.02 |
— |
50% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.20 |
— |
49% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
3.56 |
— |
30% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.39 |
— |
72% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.52 |
— |
66% |
Cashed |
+0.52 |
Cashed
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.06 |
— |
93% |
Cashed |
+0.06 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.53 |
— |
64% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.30 |
— |
74% |
Cashed |
+0.30 |
Cashed
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
— |
50% |
Cashed |
+0.92 |
Cashed
|
| Away Win |
2.68 |
— |
36% |
Cashed |
+1.68 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
2.76 |
— |
34% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.73 |
— |
51% |
Cashed |
+0.73 |
Cashed
|
| AH Away 0 |
1.95 |
— |
36% |
Cashed |
+0.95 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home 0 |
1.99 |
— |
34% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 14 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
7 W · 7 L |
−1.84u |
−13% ROI |
