Match Auxerre vs Nice May 10, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 11.00 — +12.7% better than the market.

Auxerre hosts Nice in a Ligue 1 clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge, but Auxerre’s home form and defensive solidity could keep things tight. The home side’s compact block and disciplined shape may blunt Nice’s more potent attack, suggesting a cautious game with limited clear-cut chances.

Auxerre’s home momentum and defensive resilience
Nice’s attacking threat facing a tough defensive test
Balanced recent form with a tendency towards draws

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5

Under 0.5 @ 11.00 ✗ Lost

AI 10% Implied 9% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AUX 4-3-3 · NIC 5-4-1

AUX · 4-3-3 5-4-1 · NIC

19 Namaso

Subs used · AUX

13'

Akpa ↑ ·

Okoh ↓

71'

Senaya ↑ ·

Sy ↓

86'

Cissokho ↑ ·

Namaso ↓

86'

Casimir ↑ ·

Mara ↓

Subs used · NIC

59'

Abdi ↑ ·

Bard ↓

59'

Louchet ↑ ·

Abdul Samed ↓

76'

Wahi ↑ ·

Cho ↓

76'

Kevin ↑ ·

Sanson ↓

81'

Jansson ↑ ·

Diop ↓

📊 Statistics

AUX 2 – 1 NIC

52%

Possession (%)

48%

0.72

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.23

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 2 – 1

⚽

S. Diop

0–1

C. Akpa ↓ · B. Okoh ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

13'

S. Mara

1–1

⚽

27'

Half-time · 1 – 1

59'

⇄

A. Abdi ↓ · M. Bard ↑

Substitution 1

59'

⇄

T. Louchet ↓ · S. Abdul Samed ↑

Substitution 2

L. Sinayoko

Assist · N. Ahamada · 2–1

⚽

70'

M. Senaya ↓ · L. Sy ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

76'

⇄

E. Wahi ↓ · M. Cho ↑

Substitution 3

76'

⇄

Kevin ↓ · M. Sanson ↑

Substitution 4

81'

⇄

I. Jansson ↓ · S. Diop ↑

Substitution 5

M. Cissokho ↓ · D. Namaso ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

86'

J. Casimir ↓ · S. Mara ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

J. Casimir

Yellow Card

▮

90+5'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Auxerre beat Nice 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.23 to 0.72. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 1.

On the scoresheet: S. Diop (9'), S. Mara (27'), L. Sinayoko (70').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.91 units (Brier 0.206).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.97	1.91	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.60	1.55	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.15	2.06	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.17	2.15	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.97	1.91	43%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.70	1.71	49%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Home Win	2.50	2.39	32%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.80	1.74	32%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Away Win	3.05	2.95	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.75	3.60	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.43	1.38	58%	Cashed	+0.43	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.20	3.19	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	10.00	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.36	1.31	76%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	1.02	90%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.50	3.34	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	1.26	69%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.91u	−23% ROI