Match Casa Pia vs Benfica August 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.51 — +6.3% better than the market.

Benfica enters this clash with a slight form edge and a clear quality advantage, despite Casa Pia's home comfort. The visitors' ability to control the game and press high could exploit Casa Pia's recent struggles. Expect a match leaning towards an open tempo, with Benfica's attacking threat likely to test the home defense repeatedly.

Benfica's pressing and tactical discipline
Casa Pia's recent form challenges
Potential for a lively, goal-rich encounter

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 2.51 ✓ Cashed

AI 42% Implied 40% +1.51u

+151%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CAS 4-3-3 · BEN 4-2-3-1

CAS · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · BEN

10 Rochinha

Subs used · CAS

59'

Osundina ↑ ·

Prieto ↓

59'

Jatta ↑ ·

Gabi ↓

64'

Clua ↑ ·

Perez ↓

77'

Rosas ↑ ·

Araujo ↓

77'

Kaly ↑ ·

Rochinha ↓

Subs used · BEN

59'

Duran ↑ ·

Pavlidis ↓

59'

Manu ↑ ·

Araujo ↓

59'

Schjelderup ↑ ·

Silva ↓

67'

Rios ↑ ·

Barrenechea ↓

78'

Lukebakio ↑ ·

Sudakov ↓

📊 Statistics

CAS 0 – 7 BEN

36%

Possession (%)

64%

0.12

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.04

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 0 – 7

⚽

G. Prestianni

0–1

14'

⚽

Rafa Silva

Assist · V. Pavlidis · 0–2

Half-time · 0 – 2

47'

⚽

V. Pavlidis

0–3

49'

⚽

V. Pavlidis

0–4

54'

⚽

V. Pavlidis

Assist · L. Barreiro · 0–5

58'

⚽

L. Ofori

Own goal · 0–6

K. Osundina ↓ · K. Prieto ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

A. Jatta ↓ · Gabi ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

59'

⇄

J. Duran ↓ · V. Pavlidis ↑

Substitution 1

59'

⇄

Manu ↓ · T. Araujo ↑

Substitution 2

59'

⇄

A. Schjelderup ↓ · Rafa Silva ↑

Substitution 3

61'

⚽

J. Duran

Assist · A. Bah · 0–7

S. Perez

Yellow Card

▮

62'

S. Clua ↓ · S. Perez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

64'

67'

⇄

R. Rios ↓ · E. Barrenechea ↑

Substitution 4

P. Rosas ↓ · H. Araujo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

Kaly ↓ · Rochinha ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

77'

78'

⇄

D. Lukebakio ↓ · G. Sudakov ↑

Substitution 5

Kaly

Yellow Card

▮

79'

Kaly

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

Kaly

Red Card

▮

90+2'

Full-time · 0 – 7

Match recap

Benfica won 7–0 away at Casa Pia. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.04 to 0.12. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 3, 8 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 7 from 3.04 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Prestianni (3'), Rafa Silva (14'), V. Pavlidis (47'), V. Pavlidis (49'), V. Pavlidis (54'), L. Ofori (58'), J. Duran (61'). Kaly was sent off in the 90+2' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.75 units (Brier 0.105).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	2.51	2.38	42%	Cashed	+1.51	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.65	1.53	64%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.20	2.17	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.62	1.63	55%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.29	2.35	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	13.00	13.51	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	4.37	4.37	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	9.00	9.01	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.04	1.04	85%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.45	1.53	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.21	1.19	68%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.02	1.02	68%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Draw	6.00	6.49	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	1.02	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.17	1.13	83%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.37	5.00	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.75	16.95	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.75u	−34% ROI