P
Prognosist
P
Home Portugal Primeira Liga Casa Pia — Benfica

Predictions Casa Pia vs Benfica August 17, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L L
Kick-off
Mon 17 Aug · 19:15
0:7
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
D W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee J. Pinheiro
Home Win · CAS
15%
Best 16.00
Draw
17%
Best 7.46
Away Win · BEN
68%
Best 1.20
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.51
Fair odds
2.36
book 2.51 · +6.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 42% · EV +6.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (58%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win
Probability 14.9%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win Top pick
Probability 67.9%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 83%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 17.2%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 42.4%
Odds 2.51
Show model details
Implied probability 39.9%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 63.9%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 36.2%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 57.6%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 83%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 17%
Odds 4.37
Show model details
Implied probability 22.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.6%
Odds 15.75
Show model details
Implied probability 6.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 44.8%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 55.2%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0
Probability 14.9%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 67.9%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 32.1%
Odds 4.37
Show model details
Implied probability 22.9%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 85.1%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.6%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
CAS – BEN @ 2.51
+6.3%
Edge
Forecast →