Match Sporting CP vs Guimaraes August 14, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.30 — +13.8% better than the market.

Sporting CP looks to leverage home momentum against a struggling Guimaraes side. Despite a recent draw, Sporting's home edge and better form suggest they can control the tempo and press effectively. Guimaraes' recent losses hint at defensive vulnerabilities that Sporting's attack may exploit.

Home advantage with pressing edge
Guimaraes' shaky away form
Potential for an open, goal-rich game given attacking tendencies

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.30 ✗ Lost

AI 49% Implied 43% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SPO 4-2-3-1 · GUI 4-2-3-1

SPO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · GUI

7 Ioannidis ⚽

Subs used · SPO

66'

Suarez ↑ ·

Goncalves ↓

66'

Guilherme ↑ ·

Catamo ↓

75'

Derry ↑ ·

Ioannidis ↓

83'

Fresneda ↑ ·

Vagiannidis ↓

Subs used · GUI

46'

Nogueira ↑ ·

Camara ↓

46'

Strata ↑ ·

Maga ↓

46'

Doucet ↑ ·

Beni ↓

77'

Verdi ↑ ·

Nogueira ↓

88'

Ouotro ↑ ·

Samu ↓

📊 Statistics

SPO 3 – 2 GUI

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.12

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.21

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

22 · 3 – 2

F. Goncalves

Assist · F. Ioannidis · 1–0

⚽

F. Ioannidis

Assist · G. Catamo · 2–0

⚽

22'

S. Altimira

Yellow Card

▮

24'

26'

▮

Thiago Balieiro

Yellow Card

38'

▮

O. Rivas Viondi

Yellow Card

S. Altimira

Assist · F. Ioannidis · 3–0

⚽

41'

Half-time · 3 – 0

46'

⇄

M. Nogueira ↓ · O. Camara ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

T. Strata ↓ · Maga ↑

Substitution 2

46'

⇄

L. Doucet ↓ · Beni ↑

Substitution 3

G. Catamo

Yellow Card

▮

55'

64'

▮

M. Nogueira

Yellow Card

66'

⚽

Samu

Assist · M. Nogueira · 3–1

L. Suarez ↓ · F. Goncalves ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

66'

Luis Guilherme ↓ · G. Catamo ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

68'

⚽

A. Ndoye

Assist · T. Strata · 3–2

E. Quaresma

Yellow Card

▮

69'

J. Derry ↓ · F. Ioannidis ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

77'

⇄

S. Verdi ↓ · G. Nogueira ↑

Substitution 4

78'

▮

Gustavo

Yellow Card

I. Fresneda ↓ · G. Vagiannidis ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

88'

⇄

P. Ouotro ↓ · Samu ↑

Substitution 5

G. Inacio

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Sporting CP beat Guimaraes 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 5, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.12 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Goncalves (9'), F. Ioannidis (22'), S. Altimira (41'), Samu (66'), A. Ndoye (68').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -4.49 units (Brier 0.160).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	2.47	2.42	29%	Cashed	+1.47	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.98	1.86	58%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.57	1.54	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.74	1.86	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.30	2.45	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	15.25	8.77	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.88	3.34	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	9.00	6.80	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.38	5.38	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.50	1.60	51%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.03	1.06	86%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.31	1.31	63%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.09	1.08	63%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.13	1.14	73%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.75	4.81	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−4.49u	−30% ROI