Match Guimaraes vs Arouca August 8, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 4.00 — +6.8% better than the market.

With limited recent form data, this Primeira Liga opener between Guimaraes and Arouca hints at a balanced contest. The odds suggest a moderately open game with a slight leaning towards goals, indicating a pace that could favor attacking transitions. Home advantage might offer Guimaraes a subtle edge, but Arouca’s resilience could keep the match tight.

Home momentum likely tempered by unknown form
Balanced attacking and defensive prospects
Moderate goal environment expected

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 4.00 ✓ Cashed

AI 27% Implied 25% +3.00u

+300%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GUI 4-2-3-1 · ARO 4-2-3-1

GUI · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · ARO

24 Ndoye

Subs used · GUI

69'

Strata ↑ ·

Maga ↓

70'

Arcanjo ↑ ·

Camara ↓

78'

Nogueira ↑ ·

Ndoye ↓

78'

Mitrovic ↑ ·

Nogueira ↓

90+6'

Doucet ↑ ·

Gustavo ↓

Subs used · ARO

65'

Lebedenko ↑ ·

Flores ↓

65'

Nandin ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

70'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

Lee ↓

70'

Santos ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

73'

Monteiro ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

📊 Statistics

GUI 0 – 1 ARO

58%

Possession (%)

42%

2.22

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.49

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 0 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

53'

⚽

I. Barbero

Assist · N. Djouahra · 0–1

64'

▮

H. Lee

Yellow Card

65'

⇄

O. Lebedenko ↓ · M. Flores ↑

Substitution 1

65'

⇄

D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 2

O. Camara

Yellow Card

▮

69'

T. Strata ↓ · Maga ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

69'

T. Arcanjo ↓ · O. Camara ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

⇄

P. Gozalbez ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 3

70'

⇄

Pedro Santos ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 4

73'

⇄

D. Monteiro ↓ · J. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 5

M. Nogueira ↓ · A. Ndoye ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

78'

M. Mitrovic ↓ · G. Nogueira ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

90'

▮

D. Monteiro

Yellow Card

90+2'

▮

O. Lebedenko

Yellow Card

90+3'

▮

D. Monteiro

Yellow Card

90+3'

▮

D. Monteiro

Red Card

90+4'

▮

I. De Arruabarrena

Yellow Card

L. Doucet ↓ · Gustavo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+6'

M. Mitrovic

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Arouca won 1–0 away at Guimaraes. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.22 to 0.49. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 4, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: I. Barbero (53'). D. Monteiro was sent off in the 90+3' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.50 units (Brier 0.273).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.88	1.84	52%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.89	1.87	51%	Cashed	+0.89	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.96	1.95	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.76	1.75	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.95	1.96	47%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Home Win	1.85	1.91	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.19	3.25	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.02	2.90	27%	Cashed	+2.02	Cashed
Away Win	4.00	4.00	27%	Cashed	+3.00	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.40	1.42	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.04	91%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.10	10.99	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.31	1.30	71%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	1.25	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.40	3.50	27%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Draw	3.50	3.45	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.22	1.22	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+1.50u	+9% ROI