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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Guimaraes — Arouca

Predictions Guimaraes vs Arouca August 8, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 L L
Kick-off
Sat 08 Aug · 17:00
0:1
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W W Away · last 5
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimaraes Referee M. Nogueira
Home Win · GUI
48%
Best 1.98
Draw
26%
Best 3.62
Away Win · ARO
27%
Best 4.01
Value pick
Away Win
@ 4.00
Fair odds
3.75
book 4.00 · +6.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 27% · EV +6.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (48%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 47.7%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 26.7%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 25.6%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 50.9%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 53.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 49.1%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 29.1%
Odds 3.19
Show model details
Implied probability 31.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.6%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 9.4%
Odds 10.10
Show model details
Implied probability 9.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 70.9%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 72.9%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 79.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 27.1%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.6%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 47.4%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 26.7%
Odds 3.02
Show model details
Implied probability 33.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 47.7%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 52.3%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Best in group
Probability 73.3%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
GUI – ARO @ 4.00
+6.8%
Edge
Forecast →