Match Girona vs Atletico Madrid December 21, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.33 — +11.5% better than the market.

Atletico Madrid enter this clash with a clear quality edge, boasting a stronger overall profile and a potent attack that challenges Girona's defense. Girona's recent home form shows resilience, but Atletico's pressing and tactical discipline could exploit the home side's defensive vulnerabilities. Expect a controlled tempo with Atletico likely to manage possession and create chances through structured buildup.

Atletico's offensive edge against Girona's defense
Girona's home momentum but defensive pressure
Moderate pace suggested by balanced goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 4.33 ✗ Lost

AI 26% Implied 23% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GIR 4-5-1 · ATM 4-4-2

GIR · 4-5-1 4-4-2 · ATM

19 Vanat

Subs used · GIR

46'

Asprilla ↑ ·

Roca ↓

61'

Rincon ↑ ·

Frances ↓

61'

Gil ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

71'

Lemar ↑ ·

Martin ↓

71'

E. Solis Romero ↑ ·

Tsygankov ↓

Subs used · ATM

28'

Gallagher ↑ ·

Gonzalez ↓

77'

Le Normand ↑

77'

Almada ↑ ·

Alvarez ↓

78'

Griezmann ↑ ·

Llorente ↓

83'

Raspadori ↑ ·

Sorloth ↓

📊 Statistics

GIR 0 – 3 ATM

51%

Possession (%)

49%

1.01

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.89

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 0 – 3

13'

⚽

Koke

0–1

28'

⇄

C. Gallagher ↓ · N. Gonzalez ↑

Substitution 1

38'

⚽

C. Gallagher

Assist · J. Alvarez · 0–2

Half-time · 0 – 2

Y. Asprilla ↓ · J. Roca ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Arnau Martínez

Yellow Card

▮

57'

H. Rincon ↓ · A. Frances ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

B. Gil ↓ · A. Martinez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

T. Lemar ↓ · I. Martin ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

71'

J. E. Solis Romero ↓ · V. Tsygankov ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

71'

77'

⇄

R. Le Normand ↓ ·

Substitution 2

77'

⇄

T. Almada ↓ · J. Alvarez ↑

Substitution 3

78'

⇄

A. Griezmann ↓ · M. Llorente ↑

Substitution 4

83'

⇄

G. Raspadori ↓ · A. Sorloth ↑

Substitution 5

Thomas Lemar

Yellow Card

▮

84'

90'

⚽

A. Griezmann

Assist · G. Raspadori · 0–3

Full-time · 0 – 3

Match recap

Atletico Madrid won 3–0 away at Girona. At half-time it was 0–2.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 9, 6 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.89 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: Koke (13'), C. Gallagher (38'), A. Griezmann (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.09 units (Brier 0.109).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.71	—	64%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.15	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.15	—	49%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.79	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.81	—	50%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.33	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.21	—	86%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.44	—	72%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.95	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.29	—	64%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.20	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	4.31	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	—	74%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Home Win	5.13	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	3.83	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.09u	−30% ROI