Match Real Madrid vs Benfica February 25, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.80 — +10.0% better than the market.

Real Madrid vs Benfica prediction
Real Madrid should have the edge at home: they can sustain pressure, create clearer chances, and usually find a way through when matches open up. Benfica are in good shape and can hurt teams on the break, but they may spend long stretches defending deeper than they want. The game profile points to goals being more likely than a slow, low-event contest, while Benfica’s best route is to keep it close rather than chase it early.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.80 ✗ Lost

AI 40% Implied 36% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

REA 4-4-2 · BEN 4-2-3-1

REA · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · BEN

7 Júnior

📊 Statistics

REA 2 – 1 BEN

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.11

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.98

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Real Madrid beat Benfica 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.98 to 1.11. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 7 landed and 6 missed, for a net -3.20 units (Brier 0.120).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 7 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.50	—	60%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.80	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.10	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.80	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.40	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.30	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	58%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.70	—	56%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.10	—	82%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.10	—	84%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Home Win	1.50	—	64%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.20	—	64%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
AH Home -1	1.70	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 6 L	−3.20u	−25% ROI