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Home World UEFA Champions League Real Madrid — Benfica

Predictions Real Madrid vs Benfica February 25, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W W W L L
Kick-off
Wed 25 Feb · 20:00
2:1
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W L W L L Away · last 5
Referee Slavko Vinčić, Slovenia
Home Win · REA
64%
Best 1.67
Draw
20%
Best 4.33
Away Win · BEN
16%
Best 4.73
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.80
Fair odds
2.50
book 2.80 · +10.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 40% · EV +10.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (60%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 20%
Odds 5.10
Show model details
Implied probability 19.7%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 16%
Odds 6.80
Show model details
Implied probability 14.8%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Top pick
Probability 64%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 67.1%
Bet quality High
Totals 5 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 60%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 40%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 44%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 44.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 56%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5 Top pick
Probability 82%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality High
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 42%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 58%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 64%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home -1
Probability 34%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 1 market
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 84%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
REA – BEN @ 2.80
+10.0%
Edge
Forecast →