Match Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta February 17, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.86 — +10.0% better than the market.

Borussia Dortmund look the more reliable side here, with stronger balance and a sharper recent run, especially in how they manage pressure and protect key areas. Atalanta can be awkward on transitions, but their chance creation has been less consistent and this is a demanding venue to spend long spells defending. The likeliest script is Dortmund controlling territory and producing the clearer openings, while Atalanta need to be clinical on counters to keep it level. Goals are very possible, but the safest read still leans toward Dortmund avoiding defeat, with the draw staying firmly in play if Atalanta’s shape holds.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.86 ✗ Lost

AI 61% Implied 54% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

DOR 3-4-2-1 · ATA 3-4-2-1

DOR · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · ATA

9 Guirassy

📊 Statistics

DOR 2 – 0 ATA

44%

Possession (%)

56%

2.09

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.46

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Borussia Dortmund beat Atalanta 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.09 to 0.46. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 8 landed and 7 missed, for a net -1.62 units (Brier 0.209).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 8 W · 7 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.73	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.80	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.86	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.78	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.45	—	42%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.80	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Home Win	2.05	—	39%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.32	—	70%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.50	—	64%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	78%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.28	—	42%	Cashed	+1.28	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.50	—	39%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.71	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 7 L	−1.62u	−11% ROI

Match Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta February 17, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.86 — +10.0% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled