Match Sturm Graz vs FK Crvena Zvezda December 11, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.66 — +6.0% better than the market.

Sturm Graz welcome Crvena Zvezda to Merkur-Arena in a match where the Austrian side are solid at home but the visitors look slightly sharper in recent European performances. Sturm score freely in their domestic league but leave a lot of space at the back, while Crvena Zvezda create chances both home and away and have enough quality to avoid a heavy defeat even on the road. We can expect an open game with goals at both ends, where the away side’s positive handicaps look very attractive from a betting perspective. Backing Crvena Zvezda with a head start on the handicap, combined with cautious plays on low goal lines and ‘both teams not to score’, offers an interesting risk–reward profile for this fixture.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 2.66 ✓ Cashed

AI 40% Implied 38% +1.66u

+166%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

STU 4-1-3-2 · CRV 4-2-3-1

STU · 4-1-3-2 4-2-3-1 · CRV

77 Malone

📊 Statistics

STU 0 – 1 CRV

59%

Possession (%)

41%

1.50

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.58

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

73%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

FK Crvena Zvezda won 1–0 away at Sturm Graz. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 81% of their passes. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.38 units (Brier 0.250).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.42	—	43%	Cashed	+1.42	Cashed
Under 0.5	17.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.66	—	40%	Cashed	+1.66	Cashed
Away Win	2.42	—	43%	Cashed	+1.42	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.60	—	65%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.00	—	20%	Cashed	+4.00	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.45	—	68%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	93%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.19	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.66	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.98	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.76	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.64	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.53	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.50	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.79	—	43%	Cashed	+0.79	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.19	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+1.38u	+8% ROI

Match Sturm Graz vs FK Crvena Zvezda December 11, 2025 — Result and Stats

AI picks BTTS No at 2.66 — +6.0% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled