Match Utrecht vs Nottingham Forest December 11, 2025 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Thu 11 Dec · 17:45
1:2
Full-time
Stadion Galgenwaard · Utrecht
Referee Irfan Peljto, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 56% · book 1.87
✓
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 38% · book 3.25
✗
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 23% · book 4.96
✗
xG (open play)
0.75 – 1.56
Δ −0.81
AI accuracy
8 / 18
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.96 — +14.0% better than the market.
Nottingham Forest look like the more structured and creative side in European competition, with clearly stronger xG numbers and a higher attacking ceiling, while Utrecht rely more on efficiency and home support at Stadion Galgenwaard. Forest should see more of the ball and generate the better chances, but Utrecht’s attack is capable of punishing in transitions and set pieces, so the game can open up after the first goal. Overall, the English side are more likely to avoid defeat and edge a fairly open match with goals from both teams.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.96
✓ Cashed
AI 58%
Implied 51%
+0.96u
⛀ Lineups
UTR 4-3-3 · NOT 4-3-3
📊 Statistics
UTR 1
– 2 NOT
0.75
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.56
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
Match recap
Nottingham Forest won 2–1 away at Utrecht. At half-time it was 0–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.56 to 0.75. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 10, 11 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 18 graded markets, 8 landed and 10 missed, for a net -6.15 units (Brier 0.129).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
18 · 8 W · 10 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.87 |
— |
56% |
Cashed |
+0.87 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
3.25 |
— |
38% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Home Win |
4.96 |
— |
23% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
— |
58% |
Cashed |
+0.96 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.30 |
— |
82% |
Cashed |
+0.30 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
2.20 |
— |
48% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.06 |
— |
95% |
Cashed |
+0.06 |
Cashed
|
| Draw |
3.92 |
— |
25% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Away Win |
1.79 |
— |
52% |
Cashed |
+0.79 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.21 |
— |
77% |
Cashed |
+0.21 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home +1 |
1.67 |
— |
55% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.00 |
— |
44% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.36 |
— |
62% |
Cashed |
+0.36 |
Cashed
|
| Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
— |
42% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home 0 |
3.57 |
— |
23% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 1.5 |
3.80 |
— |
18% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
1.30 |
— |
52% |
Cashed |
+0.30 |
Cashed
|
| Under 0.5 |
11.00 |
— |
5% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 18 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 10 L |
−6.15u |
−34% ROI |
