Match FC Porto vs Nice November 27, 2025 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Thu 27 Nov · 17:45
3:0
Full-time
Nice
L
L
L
W
L
Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto
Referee Matej Jug, Slovenia
Miss
Under 0.5
Under 0.5
AI 10% · book 14.20
✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 60% · book 1.79
✓
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 12% · book 8.50
✗
xG (open play)
1.50 – 0.91
Δ +0.59
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks BTTS No at 1.79 — +7.4% better than the market.
FC Porto look much stronger than Nice in this matchup, with far better recent form and a very solid defensive record both at home and in Europe. The most likely scenario is a controlled home win for Porto in a medium-scoring game, something like 2-0 or 2-1, with the visitors struggling to create many clear-cut chances.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 1.79
✓ Cashed
AI 60%
Implied 56%
+0.79u
⛀ Lineups
POR 4-3-3 · NIC 3-5-2
📊 Statistics
POR 3
– 0 NIC
1.50
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.91
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
Match recap
FC Porto beat Nice 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.50 to 0.91. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.50 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.94 units (Brier 0.077).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
17 · 8 W · 9 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Under 0.5 |
14.20 |
— |
10% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
1.79 |
— |
60% |
Cashed |
+0.79 |
Cashed
|
| Away Win |
8.50 |
— |
12% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Home Win |
1.45 |
— |
70% |
Cashed |
+0.45 |
Cashed
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
— |
55% |
Cashed |
+0.82 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.25 |
— |
80% |
Cashed |
+0.25 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.12 |
— |
88% |
Cashed |
+0.12 |
Cashed
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.44 |
— |
68% |
Cashed |
+0.44 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
3.05 |
— |
32% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home 0 |
1.14 |
— |
85% |
Cashed |
+0.14 |
Cashed
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.14 |
— |
45% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.05 |
— |
90% |
Cashed |
+0.05 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance X2 |
3.14 |
— |
30% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
6.05 |
— |
15% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
5.07 |
— |
18% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS Yes |
2.09 |
— |
40% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 1.5 |
4.20 |
— |
20% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 9 L |
−5.94u |
−35% ROI |
