Match Sturm Graz vs Nottingham Forest November 6, 2025 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Thu 06 Nov · 17:45
0:0
Full-time
Merkur-Arena · Graz
Referee Mykola Balakin, Ukraine
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 73% · book 2.26
✓
Hit
Draw
Draw
AI 28% · book 4.24
✓
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 27% · book 1.72
✗
xG (open play)
0.07 – 1.41
Δ −1.34
AI accuracy
10 / 21
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks AH Home +2 at 1.19 — +10.0% better than the market.
Sturm’s three-game home surge and balanced five-match rhythm make the upset live, while Forest threaten most in transition. Expect a measured first hour with the hosts edging set-plays and territory; visitors remain dangerous on counters. Base case: 1X with medium totals unless an early goal breaks structure.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · AH Home +2
AH Home +2 @ 1.19
✓ Cashed
AI 93%
Implied 84%
+0.19u
⛀ Lineups
STU 4-3-1-2 · NOT 4-2-3-1
📊 Statistics
STU 0
– 0 NOT
0.07
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.41
77%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
Match recap
Sturm Graz and Nottingham Forest drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.41 to 0.07. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 9 shots to 3, 2 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 4 to 0.
Model audit for this match: of 21 graded markets, 10 landed and 11 missed, for a net +13.77 units (Brier 0.266).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
21 · 10 W · 11 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Double Chance 1X |
2.26 |
— |
73% |
Cashed |
+1.26 |
Cashed
|
| Draw |
4.24 |
— |
28% |
Cashed |
+3.24 |
Cashed
|
| Away Win |
1.72 |
— |
27% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.77 |
— |
54% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.15 |
— |
46% |
Cashed |
+1.15 |
Cashed
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.05 |
— |
90% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 0.5 |
14.00 |
— |
10% |
Cashed |
+13.00 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.24 |
— |
74% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 1.5 |
4.33 |
— |
26% |
Cashed |
+3.33 |
Cashed
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
— |
55% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.18 |
— |
45% |
Cashed |
+1.18 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
3.00 |
— |
33% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.47 |
— |
67% |
Cashed |
+0.47 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
5.06 |
— |
45% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.23 |
— |
55% |
Cashed |
+0.23 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home 0 |
3.56 |
— |
45% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
1.31 |
— |
27% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home -1 |
9.50 |
— |
18% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away -1 |
1.06 |
— |
12% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home +1 |
1.72 |
— |
73% |
Cashed |
+0.72 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home +2 |
1.19 |
— |
93% |
Cashed |
+0.19 |
Cashed
|
| Total · 21 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
10 W · 11 L |
+13.77u |
+66% ROI |
