Match Dender vs Charleroi March 7, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.60 — +14.3% better than the market.

Charleroi arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their stronger attack faces a home defense that has struggled, hinting at potential scoring opportunities. However, Dender's home momentum and compact defensive setup could limit the goal flow, making this a tactical battle.

Charleroi's offensive pressure vs Dender's defensive resilience
Recent form favors the visitors
Moderate pace expected given balanced goal market odds

Expect a controlled game where Charleroi's quality and form may tip the scales, but Dender's home grit could keep the scoreline tight.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.60 ✗ Lost

AI 32% Implied 28% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

DEN 4-2-3-1 · CHA 4-2-3-1

DEN · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · CHA

9 Toshevski

📊 Statistics

DEN 2 – 2 CHA

43%

Possession (%)

57%

2.10

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.38

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

71%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Dender and Charleroi drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 81% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 15, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 13 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.81 units (Brier 0.244).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.87	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.23	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.07	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.83	—	47%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.05	—	42%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.60	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.72	—	47%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.48	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.60	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.35	—	79%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.34	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	90%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	3.45	—	26%	Cashed	+2.45	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.32	—	68%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.40	—	23%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Home Win	3.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.81u	−5% ROI