Match Fulham vs Aston Villa April 25, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.33 — +9.8% better than the market.

Fulham hosts Aston Villa in a clash where Villa’s overall quality and recent winning form give them a slight edge. Despite Fulham’s home momentum and solid defensive shape, Villa’s sharper attack against Fulham’s defense suggests they can break through. The pace looks balanced, hinting at a tactical battle rather than a goal-fest.

Villa’s recent strong run contrasts with Fulham’s mixed results.
Home side’s defensive resilience may limit scoring chances.
Villa’s offensive edge could exploit gaps on the break.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 4.33 ✓ Cashed

AI 25% Implied 23% +3.33u

+333%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FUL 4-2-3-1 · AST 4-2-3-1

FUL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · AST

7 Jimenez

Subs used · FUL

66'

Muniz ↑ ·

Jimenez ↓

76'

Bobb ↑ ·

Chukwueze ↓

76'

King ↑ ·

Smith Rowe ↓

81'

Robinson ↑ ·

Sessegnon ↓

Subs used · AST

74'

Barkley ↑ ·

McGinn ↓

74'

Bailey ↑ ·

Buendia ↓

74'

Luiz ↑ ·

Bogarde ↓

74'

Sancho ↑ ·

Tielemans ↓

81'

Abraham ↑ ·

Watkins ↓

📊 Statistics

FUL 1 – 0 AST

39%

Possession (%)

61%

1.06

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.71

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 0

R. Sessegnon

1–0

⚽

43'

Half-time · 1 – 0

Timothy Castagne

Yellow Card

▮

46'

49'

▮

Pau Torres

Yellow Card

Rodrigo Muniz ↓ · R. Jimenez ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

66'

74'

⇄

R. Barkley ↓ · J. McGinn ↑

Substitution 1

74'

⇄

L. Bailey ↓ · E. Buendia ↑

Substitution 2

74'

⇄

Douglas Luiz ↓ · L. Bogarde ↑

Substitution 3

74'

⇄

J. Sancho ↓ · Y. Tielemans ↑

Substitution 4

O. Bobb ↓ · S. Chukwueze ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

76'

J. King ↓ · E. Smith Rowe ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

A. Robinson ↓ · R. Sessegnon ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

81'

⇄

T. Abraham ↓ · O. Watkins ↑

Substitution 5

Harry Wilson

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

90+4'

▮

Douglas Luiz

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Fulham beat Aston Villa 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Sessegnon (43').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.68 units (Brier 0.275).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.57	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.15	—	50%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
BTTS No	2.30	—	46%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.81	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.90	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.78	—	28%	Cashed	+1.78	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.05	—	28%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.50	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	25%	Cashed	+3.33	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.45	—	71%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.95	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.57	—	53%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.50	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.74	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.68u	+4% ROI