Match Chelsea vs Manchester City April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.48 — +9.5% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 2.48 ✗ Lost

AI 44% Implied 40% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CHE 4-2-3-1 · MCI 4-2-3-1

CHE · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · MCI

20 Pedro

Subs used · CHE

67'

Garnacho ↑ ·

Estêvão ↓

67'

Lavia ↑ ·

Santos ↓

81'

Delap ↑ ·

Pedro ↓

82'

Essugo ↑ ·

Caicedo ↓

88'

Acheampong ↑ ·

Gusto ↓

Subs used · MCI

64'

Ait-Nouri ↑ ·

O'Reilly ↓

76'

Foden ↑ ·

Cherki ↓

76'

Savinho ↑ ·

Doku ↓

81'

Kovacic ↑ ·

Silva ↓

📊 Statistics

CHE 0 – 3 MCI

36%

Possession (%)

64%

1.14

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.89

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

91%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 0 – 3

Estêvão

Yellow Card

▮

12'

38'

▮

Antoine Semenyo

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

51'

⚽

N. O'Reilly

Assist · R. Cherki · 0–1

Marc Cucurella

Yellow Card

▮

54'

57'

⚽

M. Guehi

Assist · R. Cherki · 0–2

64'

⇄

R. Ait-Nouri ↓ · N. O'Reilly ↑

Substitution 1

A. Garnacho ↓ · Estêvão ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

67'

R. Lavia ↓ · Andrey Santos ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

68'

⚽

J. Doku

0–3

76'

⇄

P. Foden ↓ · R. Cherki ↑

Substitution 2

76'

⇄

Savinho ↓ · J. Doku ↑

Substitution 3

L. Delap ↓ · Joao Pedro ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

81'

⇄

M. Kovacic ↓ · B. Silva ↑

Substitution 4

D. Essugo ↓ · M. Caicedo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

J. Acheampong ↓ · M. Gusto ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

Dário Essugo

Yellow Card

▮

90+8'

Full-time · 0 – 3

Match recap

Manchester City won 3–0 away at Chelsea. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.89 to 1.14. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 12, 8 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 12 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. O'Reilly (51'), M. Guehi (57'), J. Doku (68').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.58 units (Brier 0.141).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.22	—	54%	Cashed	+1.22	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.48	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.67	—	56%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
BTTS No	2.70	—	34%	Cashed	+1.70	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.64	—	54%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.53	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.74	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.38	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.40	—	77%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.58	—	65%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.50	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.18	—	85%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	—	96%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.00	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.50	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	18.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.30	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.58u	−21% ROI