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Home England Premier League Chelsea — Manchester City

Predictions Chelsea vs Manchester City April 12, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Chelsea
Chelsea
Home · last 5 L L D W L
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 15:30
0:3
Full-time
Manchester City
Manchester City
D W W D L Away · last 5
Stamford Bridge · London Referee Chris Kavanagh, England
Home Win · CHE
23%
Best 3.50
Draw
24%
Best 3.88
Away Win · MCI
54%
Best 1.95
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.48
Fair odds
2.26
book 2.48 · +9.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 44% · EV +9.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (56%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 53.6%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 23.8%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 22.7%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 44.2%
Odds 2.48
Show model details
Implied probability 40.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 55.8%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 2.53
Show model details
Implied probability 39.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.7%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.8%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.4%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.2%
Odds 18.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 34.4%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 65.6%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.64
Show model details
Implied probability 61%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 22.7%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 46.4%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 77.3%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
CHE – MCI @ 2.48
+9.5%
Edge
Forecast →