Match Manchester United vs Leeds April 13, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.68 — +8.7% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.68 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 60% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MUN 4-2-3-1 · LEE 3-4-2-1

MUN · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · LEE

30 Šeško

Subs used · MUN

70'

Dalot ↑ ·

Mazraoui ↓

70'

Mbeumo ↑ ·

Diallo ↓

Subs used · LEE

74'

Gruev ↑ ·

Tanaka ↓

74'

Gnonto ↑ ·

Okafor ↓

86'

Longstaff ↑ ·

Aaronson ↓

📊 Statistics

MUN 1 – 2 LEE

52%

Possession (%)

48%

1.47

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.37

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 2

⚽

N. Okafor

0–1

Matheus Cunha

Yellow Card

▮

18'

29'

⚽

N. Okafor

Assist · B. Aaronson · 0–2

39'

▮

James Justin

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 2

Luke Shaw

Yellow Card

▮

49'

Lisandro Martínez

Red Card

▮

56'

Bruno Fernandes

Yellow Card

▮

64'

Casemiro

Assist · B. Fernandes · 1–2

⚽

69'

D. Dalot ↓ · N. Mazraoui ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

B. Mbeumo ↓ · A. Diallo ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

74'

⇄

I. Gruev ↓ · A. Tanaka ↑

Substitution 1

74'

⇄

W. Gnonto ↓ · N. Okafor ↑

Substitution 2

86'

▮

Ethan Ampadu

Yellow Card

86'

⇄

S. Longstaff ↓ · B. Aaronson ↑

Substitution 3

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Leeds won 2–1 away at Manchester United. At half-time it was 0–2.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.37 to 1.47. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 15, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Okafor (5'), N. Okafor (29'), Casemiro (69'). Lisandro Martínez was sent off in the 56' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +2.32 units (Brier 0.275).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.68	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.77	—	56%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.22	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.76	—	55%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
BTTS No	2.10	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.33	—	35%	Cashed	+1.33	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.19	—	87%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.88	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.47	—	66%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.25	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.24	—	79%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Draw	4.35	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.10	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.50	—	13%	Cashed	+4.50	Cashed
AH Away 0	4.20	—	13%	Cashed	+3.20	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+2.32u	+14% ROI