Match Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen February 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.09 — +11.5% better than the market.

Ajax hosts NEC Nijmegen in a clash where home momentum and tactical discipline could be decisive. Despite NEC's slightly higher overall strength, Ajax's home edge and recent form suggest a compact defensive setup ready to counter NEC's potent attack. The match hints at a lively pace with both sides capable of scoring, supported by recent high-scoring encounters.

Ajax's home advantage and solid defensive shape
NEC's attacking threat against a disciplined backline
Recent form favors Ajax's consistency

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 2.09 ✓ Cashed

AI 53% Implied 48% +1.09u

+109%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AJA 4-3-3 · NIJ 3-4-2-1

AJA · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · NIJ

11 Godts

📊 Statistics

AJA 1 – 1 NIJ

48%

Possession (%)

52%

1.48

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.16

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Ajax and NEC Nijmegen drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 9, 9 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.05 units (Brier 0.192).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.09	—	53%	Cashed	+1.09	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.18	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.77	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.75	—	51%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.80	—	31%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
Home Win	1.80	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.50	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.20	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.49	—	67%	Cashed	+0.49	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.14	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.29	—	68%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.15	—	87%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	—	96%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.35	—	22%	Cashed	+3.35	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.10	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	21.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.37	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.05u	−6% ROI