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Home Netherlands Eredivisie Ajax — NEC Nijmegen

Predictions Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen February 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Ajax
Ajax
Home · last 5 D L D W D
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 20:00
1:1
Full-time
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
D D D L W Away · last 5
Johan Cruijff Arena · Amsterdam Referee Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
Home Win · AJA
47%
Best 1.79
Draw
22%
Best 4.00
Away Win · NIJ
32%
Best 3.93
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 2.09
Fair odds
1.87
book 2.09 · +11.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 53% · EV +11.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (68%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 46.7%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 31.5%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 21.8%
Odds 4.35
Show model details
Implied probability 23%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 49%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 51%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 30.6%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 69.4%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 86.7%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 13.3%
Odds 6.10
Show model details
Implied probability 16.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 3.6%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 32.6%
Odds 2.77
Show model details
Implied probability 36.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 67.4%
Odds 1.49
Show model details
Implied probability 67.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 31.5%
Odds 3.14
Show model details
Implied probability 31.9%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 46.7%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 53.4%
Odds 2.09
Show model details
Implied probability 47.9%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 68.5%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
AJA – NIJ @ 2.09
+11.5%
Edge
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