Match PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar January 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.65 — +6.5% better than the market.

AZ Alkmaar enters this clash with a clear quality edge and a potent attack that challenges PEC Zwolle's defense. Despite Zwolle's recent home momentum and solid form, AZ's offensive firepower and overall strength suggest they can control the game. The home side's defensive resilience will be tested against AZ's pressing and creativity.

AZ's superior quality and attacking threat
PEC Zwolle's home form and defensive grit
Moderate pace expected with chances for both sides

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.65 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 61% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ZWO 4-3-3 · ALK 4-2-3-1

ZWO · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · ALK

7 Shoretire

📊 Statistics

ZWO 3 – 1 ALK

48%

Possession (%)

52%

1.73

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.61

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

PEC Zwolle beat AZ Alkmaar 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.73 to 0.61. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.91 units (Brier 0.292).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.65	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.45	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.65	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.67	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.35	—	39%	Cashed	+1.35	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.60	—	57%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.35	—	35%	Cashed	+1.35	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.21	—	86%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.55	—	61%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.27	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.75	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.18	—	82%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Draw	4.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	19.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	5.00	—	14%	Cashed	+4.00	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.85	—	14%	Cashed	+2.85	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+1.91u	+11% ROI