Match PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven October 4, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.95 — +9.2% better than the market.

PEC Zwolle vs PSV: the visitors bring a clear gap in overall quality and finishing form, with enough depth to sustain pressure and tilt the game state early. Zwolle’s path runs through compact defending and fast breaks, but the baseline is PSV control. Totals lean moderate—PSV should create plenty, yet a disciplined home shape keeps extreme scorelines in check. Safest angles cluster around away-sided protection and cautious unders.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.95 ✗ Lost

AI 37% Implied 34% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ZWO 4-5-1 · PSV 4-2-3-1

ZWO · 4-5-1 4-2-3-1 · PSV

10 Kostons

📊 Statistics

ZWO 0 – 4 PSV

28%

Possession (%)

72%

0.12

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.86

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

91%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

PSV Eindhoven won 4–0 away at PEC Zwolle. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 72% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.86 to 0.12. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 4, 9 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.86 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 3 landed and 4 missed, for a net -1.50 units (Brier 0.119).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 3 W · 4 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
AH Away +1	1.62	—	91%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
BTTS No	2.46	—	48%	Cashed	+1.46	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.91	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.42	—	75%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.95	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.40	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	7.50	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	3 W · 4 L	−1.50u	−21% ROI