Match Famalicao vs Alverca May 16, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.15 — +6.5% better than the market.

Famalicao holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, reflected in their stronger form and superior defensive solidity. Their compact block and disciplined defense could frustrate Alverca, who show signs of inconsistency away. The home side’s pressing edge and ability to control tempo suggest a tactical advantage, especially given Alverca’s moderate offensive threat.

Home defensive resilience vs away attack
Recent form favors Famalicao’s stability
Moderate pace hints at a controlled, tactical game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 2.15 ✓ Cashed

AI 50% Implied 47% +1.15u

+115%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FAM 4-2-3-1

FAM · 4-2-3-1

6 Looi

Subs used · FAM

65'

Abubakar ↑ ·

Elisor ↓

81'

Bondo ↑ ·

Van de Looi ↓

81'

Beney ↑ ·

Dias ↓

87'

Pena ↑ ·

Sorriso ↓

87'

Joujou ↑ ·

Sa ↓

Subs used · ALV

81'

Gui ↑ ·

Rhaldney ↓

88'

Moreira ↑ ·

Figueiredo ↓

88'

Lima ↑ ·

Lima ↓

88'

Garcia ↑ ·

Lincoln ↓

90+1'

Kauan ↑ ·

Touaizi ↓

📊 Statistics

FAM 1 – 0 ALV

50%

Possession (%)

50%

0.56

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.46

11

Total Shots

7

2

Shots on Target

1

6

Shots off Target

6

5

Shots Inside Box

5

6

Corner Kicks

5

3

Offsides

2

9

Fouls

8

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

1

Yellow Cards

2

1

Goalkeeper Saves

1

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 0

20'

▮

N. Touaizi

Yellow Card

T. Van de Looi

Yellow Card

▮

38'

Half-time · 0 – 0

U. Abubakar ↓ · S. Elisor ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

Pedro Bondo ↓ · T. Van de Looi ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

81'

⇄

D. Gui ↓ · Rhaldney ↑

Substitution 1

R. Beney ↓ · Gil Dias ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

81'

U. Abubakar

Assist · Rafa Soares · 1–0

⚽

83'

86'

▮

Chiquinho

Yellow Card

M. Pena ↓ · Sorriso ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

87'

A. Joujou ↓ · G. Sa ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

87'

88'

⇄

V. Moreira ↓ · Figueiredo ↑

Substitution 2

88'

⇄

Felipe Lima ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑

Substitution 3

88'

⇄

F. Garcia ↓ · Lincoln ↑

Substitution 4

90+1'

⇄

Kauan ↓ · N. Touaizi ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Famalicao beat Alverca 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 7, 2 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: U. Abubakar (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.75 units (Brier 0.159).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.66	1.61	64%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.28	2.00	51%	Cashed	+1.28	Cashed
BTTS No	2.15	1.91	50%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	1.81	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.69	1.80	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.30	2.27	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.10	3.00	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	3.75	27%	Cashed	+3.33	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.19	1.17	86%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.36	1.34	74%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.25	1.20	64%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	12.05	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.26	3.92	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	1.03	92%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.20	1.22	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.14	5.38	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.80	4.00	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.75u	−10% ROI