Match Santa Clara vs Nacional May 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.70 — +10.8% better than the market.

Santa Clara faces a tough challenge against Nacional at Estádio de São Miguel. Despite Santa Clara's home momentum and a compact defensive block, Nacional's superior overall quality and sharper offensive edge suggest they can exploit gaps. Recent form favors Nacional slightly, hinting at a competitive but tight encounter.

Home side's defensive resilience vs away's attacking threat
Close recent form but Nacional's quality edge
Moderate pace expected with under 2.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.70 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 59% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SAN 4-3-3 · NAC 4-2-3-1

SAN · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · NAC

10 Silva

Subs used · SAN

24'

Manoel ↑ ·

Paciencia ↓

64'

Darlan ↑ ·

Klismahn ↓

64'

Isaac ↑ ·

Andrey ↓

82'

Lopes ↑ ·

Torrao ↓

82'

Fernando ↑ ·

Silva ↓

Subs used · NAC

46'

Labidi ↑ ·

Dias ↓

46'

Veron ↑ ·

Witi ↓

62'

Nunez ↑ ·

Aurelio ↓

82'

Joao ↑ ·

Junior ↓

90+4'

Watts ↑ ·

Soares ↓

📊 Statistics

SAN 2 – 0 NAC

41%

Possession (%)

59%

1.37

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.61

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 0

Elias Manoel ↓ · G. Paciencia ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

24'

P. Pacheco

Assist · Andrey · 1–0

⚽

27'

29'

▮

Paulinho Boia

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

C. Labidi ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

Gabriel Veron ↓ · Witi ↑

Substitution 2

60'

▮

J. Aurelio

Yellow Card

62'

⇄

A. Nunez ↓ · J. Aurelio ↑

Substitution 3

Darlan ↓ · Gustavo Klismahn ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

64'

Isaac ↓ · Andrey ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

64'

Darlan

Yellow Card

▮

80'

Vinicius Lopes ↓ · Welinton Torrao ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

Fernando ↓ · Gabriel Silva ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

⇄

L. Joao ↓ · Daniel Junior ↑

Substitution 4

Elias Manoel

Assist · Fernando · 2–0

⚽

90+2'

90+4'

⇄

Watts ↓ · F. Soares ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Santa Clara beat Nacional 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.37 to 0.61. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: P. Pacheco (27'), Elias Manoel (90+2').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.23 units (Brier 0.168).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.70	1.54	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.00	1.91	54%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.78	1.70	60%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.36	2.18	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.13	2.15	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.80	1.80	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.34	2.40	35%	Cashed	+1.34	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.65	1.70	35%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Away Win	3.40	3.05	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.25	3.10	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.35	1.36	63%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.00	8.47	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.25	1.23	80%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	1.04	89%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	3.30	3.09	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.33	1.33	66%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.80	3.75	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.23u	−25% ROI