Match Estoril vs Famalicao April 26, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.62 — +6.1% better than the market.

Estoril holds a slight quality edge and home momentum despite recent struggles, having edged a win in their last outing. Their offensive edge against Famalicao's leaky defense suggests chances to break through, while Famalicao's solid recent form and resilience could keep this tight. Expect a tactical battle with Estoril pressing to capitalize on home advantage and Famalicao aiming to frustrate with a compact block.

Home attacking pressure vs away defensive gaps
Famalicao's recent unbeaten run adds confidence
Moderate pace hinted by balanced goal odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.62 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 62% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

EST 3-4-2-1 · FAM 4-2-3-1

EST · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · FAM

14 Begraoui

Subs used · EST

76'

Costa ↑ ·

Amaral ↓

88'

Marques ↑ ·

Ferro ↓

Subs used · FAM

83'

Pena ↑ ·

De Amorim ↓

87'

Realpe ↑ ·

Sa ↓

87'

Abubakar ↑ ·

Elisor ↓

90+1'

Garcia ↑ ·

Dias ↓

📊 Statistics

EST 0 – 1 FAM

54%

Possession (%)

46%

0.66

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.05

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

9 · 0 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

46'

▮

Tom Van De Looi

Yellow Card

51'

⚽

J. De Haas (P)

Penalty · 0–1

56'

▮

Mathias De Amorim

Yellow Card

G. Costa ↓ · P. Amaral ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

76'

83'

⇄

M. Pena ↓ · M. De Amorim ↑

Substitution 1

87'

⇄

L. Realpe ↓ · G. Sa ↑

Substitution 2

87'

⇄

U. Abubakar ↓ · S. Elisor ↑

Substitution 3

A. Marques ↓ · Ferro ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

88'

90+1'

⇄

Garcia ↓ · Gil Dias ↑

Substitution 4

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Famalicao won 1–0 away at Estoril. At half-time it was 0–0.

From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 4.

On the scoresheet: J. De Haas (51').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.82 units (Brier 0.252).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X	1.62	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	45%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.10	—	49%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.25	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.70	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.63	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.23	—	35%	Cashed	+1.23	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.63	—	35%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Home Win	3.00	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.43	—	70%	Cashed	+0.43	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.55	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.35	—	60%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.10	—	25%	Cashed	+3.10	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	92%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.13	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.20	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.45	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.82u	−5% ROI