Match Alverca vs Casa Pia April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.32 — +5.4% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.32 ✓ Cashed

AI 80% Implied 76% +0.32u

+32%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALV 3-4-3 · CAS 3-4-3

ALV · 3-4-3 3-4-3 · CAS

10 Chiquinho ⚽

Subs used · ALV

75'

Marezi ↑ ·

Lima ↓

87'

Nuozzi ↑ ·

Rhaldney ↓

87'

Moreira ↑ ·

Figueiredo ↓

90+3'

Gui ↑ ·

Lincoln ↓

90+3'

Kassary ↑ ·

Chiquinho ↓

Subs used · CAS

58'

Mendes ↑ ·

Cassiano ↓

68'

Livramento ↑ ·

Livolant ↓

69'

Ofori ↑ ·

Marques ↓

69'

Mohamed ↑ ·

Perez ↓

82'

Geraldes ↑ ·

Sousa ↓

📊 Statistics

ALV 3 – 1 CAS

60%

Possession (%)

40%

1.83

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.65

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

61%

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 3 – 1

⚽

J. Marques

Assist · J. Livolant · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

Figueiredo

Assist · Chiquinho · 1–1

⚽

49'

58'

⇄

C. Mendes ↓ · Cassiano ↑

Substitution 1

Chiquinho

2–1

⚽

63'

68'

⇄

D. Livramento ↓ · J. Livolant ↑

Substitution 2

69'

⇄

L. Ofori ↓ · J. Marques ↑

Substitution 3

69'

⇄

I. Mohamed ↓ · S. Perez ↑

Substitution 4

Marezi ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

75'

82'

⇄

A. Geraldes ↓ · D. Sousa ↑

Substitution 5

Rhaldney

Assist · Marezi · 3–1

⚽

83'

C. Nuozzi ↓ · Rhaldney ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

87'

V. Moreira ↓ · Figueiredo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

87'

D. Gui ↓ · Lincoln ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+3'

Z. Kassary ↓ · Chiquinho ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Alverca beat Casa Pia 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 79% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.83 to 0.65. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 11, 5 on target.

On the scoresheet: J. Marques (1'), Figueiredo (49'), Chiquinho (63'), Rhaldney (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.03 units (Brier 0.215).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.18	—	53%	Cashed	+1.18	Cashed
BTTS No	1.90	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.71	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.25	—	41%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.99	—	46%	Cashed	+0.99	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.75	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.62	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.32	—	80%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.03	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.42	—	67%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.52	—	53%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.25	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	89%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.37	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.20	—	21%	Cashed	+3.20	Cashed
Away Win	3.70	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.03u	−6% ROI