Match Estoril vs FC Porto April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.53 — +6.1% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.53 ✓ Cashed

AI 69% Implied 65% +0.53u

+53%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

EST 4-3-1-2 · POR 4-3-3

EST · 4-3-1-2 4-3-3 · POR

19 Lacximicant

Subs used · EST

63'

Guitane ↑ ·

Xeka ↓

71'

Marques ↑ ·

Lacximicant ↓

71'

Carvalho ↑ ·

Amaral ↓

77'

Pizzi ↑ ·

Holsgrove ↓

77'

Lominadze ↑ ·

Jandro ↓

Subs used · POR

60'

Sainz ↑ ·

Pietuszewski ↓

70'

Moura ↑ ·

Zaidu ↓

70'

Moffi ↑ ·

Gul ↓

70'

Mora ↑ ·

Veiga ↓

83'

Fofana ↑ ·

Pepê ↓

📊 Statistics

EST 1 – 3 POR

55%

Possession (%)

45%

0.39

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.69

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

78%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 1 – 3

14'

⚽

Pepe

Assist · G. Veiga · 0–1

Jordan Holsgrove

Yellow Card

▮

30'

32'

⚽

Xeka

Own goal · 0–2

Half-time · 0 – 2

João Carvalho

Yellow Card

▮

51'

▮

Oskar Pietuszewski

Yellow Card

60'

⇄

B. Sainz ↓ · O. Pietuszewski ↑

Substitution 1

R. Guitane ↓ · Xeka ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

63'

70'

⇄

F. Moura ↓ · Zaidu ↑

Substitution 2

70'

⇄

T. Moffi ↓ · D. Gul ↑

Substitution 3

70'

⇄

R. Mora ↓ · G. Veiga ↑

Substitution 4

A. Marques ↓ · A. Lacximicant ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

P. Carvalho ↓ · P. Amaral ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

72'

⚽

V. Froholdt

Assist · A. Costa · 0–3

Pizzi ↓ · J. Holsgrove ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

N. Lominadze ↓ · Jandro ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

77'

Y. Begraoui

Assist · Pizzi · 1–3

⚽

78'

Ricard Sánchez

Yellow Card

▮

82'

83'

⇄

S. Fofana ↓ · Pepê ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

FC Porto won 3–1 away at Estoril. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.69 to 0.39. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 8, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Pepe (14'), Xeka (32'), V. Froholdt (72'), Y. Begraoui (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.57 units (Brier 0.116).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.85	—	55%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.73	—	37%	Cashed	+1.73	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.72	—	59%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.23	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.96	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.75	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.53	—	69%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.14	—	90%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.50	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.18	—	69%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	80%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Draw	4.70	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.70	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	7.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	5.04	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.57u	−27% ROI