Match AVS vs Estoril February 15, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.33 — +13.9% better than the market.

Estoril arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they control the tempo against struggling AVS. The visitors' stronger attack faces a home defense that has been leaky, hinting at chances for Estoril to break through. AVS’s home edge is limited, and their poor momentum may see them under pressure early on.

Estoril’s offensive pressure vs AVS’s vulnerable defense
Recent form favors the away side
Moderate pace expected with balanced goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 4.33 ✗ Lost

AI 26% Implied 23% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AVS 4-1-4-1 · EST 4-2-2-2

AVS · 4-1-4-1 4-2-2-2 · EST

7 Tomané ⚽

Subs used · AVS

53'

Kiki ↑ ·

Rivas ↓

53'

Algobia ↑ ·

Mendonca ↓

68'

Perea ↑ ·

Lima ↓

77'

Nene ↑ ·

Tomane ↓

77'

Santos ↑ ·

Duarte ↓

Subs used · EST

61'

Costa ↑ ·

Amaral ↓

61'

Pizzi ↑ ·

Jandro ↓

72'

Carvalho ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

84'

Peixinho ↑ ·

Guitane ↓

📊 Statistics

AVS 3 – 0 EST

29%

Possession (%)

71%

1.02

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.08

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

66%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 3 – 0

Gustavo Mendonca

Yellow Card

▮

34'

Leonardo Rivas

Yellow Card

▮

43'

Half-time · 0 – 0

Kiki ↓ · D. Rivas ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

53'

A. Algobia ↓ · G. Mendonca ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

53'

D. Duarte

1–0

⚽

54'

61'

⇄

G. Costa ↓ · P. Amaral ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

Pizzi ↓ · Jandro ↑

Substitution 2

O. Perea ↓ · Pedro Lima ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

68'

72'

⇄

P. Carvalho ↓ · R. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 3

Tomane

2–0

⚽

75'

Nene ↓ · Tomane ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

A. Santos ↓ · D. Duarte ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

77'

81'

▮

Rafik Guitane

Yellow Card

84'

⇄

Peixinho ↓ · R. Guitane ↑

Substitution 4

90'

▮

Ferro

Yellow Card

A. Algobia

Assist · Nene · 3–0

⚽

90'

Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

AVS beat Estoril 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 71% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 85% of their passes. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.02 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Duarte (54'), Tomane (75'), A. Algobia (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.45 units (Brier 0.268).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.85	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.14	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.19	—	50%	Cashed	+1.19	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.82	—	49%	Cashed	+0.82	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.71	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.05	—	40%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.45	—	73%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.33	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.25	—	83%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.05	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.35	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	—	74%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Draw	3.86	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.34	—	17%	Cashed	+3.34	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.30	—	17%	Cashed	+2.30	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.45u	+3% ROI