Match GIL Vicente vs Nacional January 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.71 — +7.8% better than the market.

GIL Vicente holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a solid defensive setup that could frustrate Nacional’s attack. Despite Nacional’s resilience, their away form and defensive frailties suggest a tough outing. The match hints at a controlled tempo with moderate goal expectations, favoring a disciplined home side.

Home defensive solidity vs away attack
Recent home form stability
Moderate pace suggested by odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.71 ✓ Cashed

AI 63% Implied 58% +0.71u

+71%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

VIC 4-2-3-1 · NAC 4-3-3

VIC · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · NAC

89 Varela

Subs used · VIC

71'

Bamba ↑ ·

Carlos ↓

72'

Fernandes ↑ ·

Toure ↓

76'

Fernandez ↑ ·

Varela ↓

85'

Espigares ↑ ·

Esteves ↓

Subs used · NAC

64'

Baeza ↑ ·

Labidi ↓

64'

Veron ↑ ·

Boia ↓

74'

Silva ↑ ·

Dias ↓

75'

Nunez ↑ ·

Aurelio ↓

81'

Joao ↑ ·

Liziero ↓

📊 Statistics

VIC 2 – 1 NAC

54%

Possession (%)

46%

1.43

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.61

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 1

Facundo Cáseres

Yellow Card

▮

-5'

Murilo de Souza

1–0

⚽

19'

22'

⚽

Ze Vitor

Assist · Leo Santos · 1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

S. Garcia

2–1

⚽

57'

62'

▮

Paulinho Bóia

Yellow Card

64'

⇄

M. Baeza ↓ · C. Labidi ↑

Substitution 1

64'

⇄

Gabriel Veron ↓ · Paulinho Boia ↑

Substitution 2

70'

▮

Matheus Dias

Yellow Card

M. Bamba ↓ · Ze Carlos ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

71'

J. Fernandes ↓ · T. Toure ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

72'

74'

⇄

J. Silva ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑

Substitution 3

75'

⇄

A. Nunez ↓ · J. Aurelio ↑

Substitution 4

M. Fernandez ↓ · G. Varela ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

81'

⇄

L. Joao ↓ · Liziero ↑

Substitution 5

A. Espigares ↓ · L. Esteves ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

GIL Vicente beat Nacional 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Murilo de Souza (19'), Ze Vitor (22'), S. Garcia (57').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.87 units (Brier 0.118).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.71	—	63%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.82	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.85	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.07	—	47%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.10	—	45%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.25	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.19	—	87%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.33	—	63%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.40	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.31	—	76%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	90%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.35	—	70%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.80	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.85	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.56	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.02	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.87u	−29% ROI