Match Famalicao vs Estrela December 27, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.50 — +13.6% better than the market.

Famalicao holds a clear quality edge over Estrela, boosted by a solid home momentum and a compact defensive block that limits opponent chances. Their attacking play matches well against Estrela's defensive setup, suggesting control in midfield and effective transitions. Recent form favors Famalicao slightly, hinting at a disciplined approach to maintain pressure and capitalize on set-piece opportunities.

Home side's defensive solidity vs away's moderate offense
Positive recent form supporting home confidence
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.50 ✗ Lost

AI 32% Implied 29% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FAM 4-2-3-1 · EST 4-2-3-1

FAM · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · EST

21 Zabiri

Subs used · FAM

68'

Elisor ↑ ·

De Amorim ↓

79'

Abubakar ↑ ·

Zabiri ↓

79'

Beney ↑ ·

Soares ↓

90'

Garcia ↑ ·

Pinheiro ↓

90'

Joujou ↑ ·

Sorriso ↓

Subs used · EST

44'

Montoia ↑ ·

Otavio ↓

69'

Robinho ↑ ·

Sola ↓

69'

Stoica ↑ ·

Marcus ↓

77'

Pinho ↑ ·

Kikas ↓

78'

Chernev ↑ ·

Jovane ↓

📊 Statistics

FAM 2 – 3 EST

61%

Possession (%)

39%

2.69

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.66

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

73%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

23 · 2 – 3

Luan Patrick

Own goal · 1–0

⚽

10'

⚽

Kikas

Assist · Otavio · 1–1

18'

▮

Jefferson Encada

Yellow Card

24'

⚽

Jovane

1–2

Sorriso

Assist · Gil Dias · 2–2

⚽

27'

Gustavo Sá

Yellow Card

▮

36'

44'

⇄

G. Montoia ↓ · Otavio ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 2 – 2

51'

⚽

Jovane

2–3

S. Elisor ↓ · M. De Amorim ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

69'

⇄

Robinho ↓ · A. Sola ↑

Substitution 2

69'

⇄

I. Stoica ↓ · A. Marcus ↑

Substitution 3

77'

⇄

Rodrigo Pinho ↓ · Kikas ↑

Substitution 4

78'

⇄

A. Chernev ↓ · Jovane ↑

Substitution 5

U. Abubakar ↓ · Y. Zabiri ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

79'

R. Beney ↓ · Rafa Soares ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

79'

81'

▮

Atanas Chernev

Yellow Card

82'

▮

Rodrigo Pinho

Yellow Card

Romeo Beney

Yellow Card

▮

84'

88'

▮

Ianis Stoica

Yellow Card

Gil Dias

Yellow Card

▮

90'

Garcia ↓ · R. Pinheiro ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90'

A. Joujou ↓ · Sorriso ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90'

90+1'

▮

Guilherme Montóia

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 3

Match recap

Estrela won 3–2 away at Famalicao. At half-time it was 2–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 84% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.69 to 0.66. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 6, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.66 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Luan Patrick (8'), Kikas (10'), Jovane (24'), Sorriso (27'), Jovane (51').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +5.93 units (Brier 0.379).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.95	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.61	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.82	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.03	—	43%	Cashed	+1.03	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.00	—	42%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.40	—	34%	Cashed	+1.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.50	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.34	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.16	—	88%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.21	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	90%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	4.10	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.32	—	68%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.45	—	22%	Cashed	+2.45	Cashed
Away Win	6.20	—	12%	Cashed	+5.20	Cashed
AH Away 0	4.47	—	12%	Cashed	+3.47	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+5.93u	+35% ROI