Match Arouca vs Alverca December 14, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 8.50 — +14.6% better than the market.

Alverca arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their stronger attack faces a home defense that has struggled, hinting at potential pressure on Arouca’s backline. However, Arouca’s home edge is mild, and their compact block could limit scoring chances, pointing to a cautious game with fewer goals expected.

Alverca’s offensive edge vs Arouca’s defense
Home momentum lacking for Arouca
Likely a low to moderate pace match with defensive focus

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5

Under 0.5 @ 8.50 ✗ Lost

AI 13% Implied 12% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · ALV 3-4-2-1

ARO · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · ALV

23 Nandín

Subs used · ARO

55'

Lee ↑ ·

Puche ↓

69'

Fontan ↑ ·

Popovic ↓

69'

Barbero ↑ ·

Nandin ↓

85'

Simao ↑ ·

Djouahra ↓

85'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

Subs used · ALV

46'

Marezi ↑ ·

Figueiredo ↓

77'

Gui ↑ ·

Amorim ↓

77'

Nuozzi ↑ ·

Lincoln ↓

85'

James ↑ ·

Meupiyou ↓

89'

Lima ↑ ·

Abdulai ↓

📊 Statistics

ARO 1 – 0 ALV

69%

Possession (%)

31%

1.73

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.21

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

70%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 1 – 0

22'

▮

Sandro Lima

Red Card

34'

▮

Nabil Touaizi

Yellow Card

41'

▮

Kaiky Naves

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

46'

⇄

Marezi ↓ · Figueiredo ↑

Substitution 1

H. Lee ↓ · Puche ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

55'

H. Lee

Assist · Tiago Esgaio · 1–0

⚽

59'

Tiago Esgaio

Yellow Card

▮

68'

J. Fontan ↓ · B. Popovic ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

I. Barbero ↓ · D. Nandin ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

73'

▮

Lincoln

Yellow Card

77'

⇄

D. Gui ↓ · Amorim ↑

Substitution 2

77'

⇄

C. Nuozzi ↓ · Lincoln ↑

Substitution 3

D. Simao ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

P. Gozalbez ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

⇄

I. James ↓ · B. Meupiyou ↑

Substitution 4

89'

⇄

Felipe Lima ↓ · S. Abdulai ↑

Substitution 5

90+5'

▮

Francisco Chissumba

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Arouca beat Alverca 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.73 to 0.21. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 5, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 5. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: H. Lee (59'). Sandro Lima was sent off in the 22' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.25 units (Brier 0.229).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.91	—	59%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.70	—	65%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Away Win	2.53	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.79	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.27	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.14	—	25%	Cashed	+1.14	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.10	—	38%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.42	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.50	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.42	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.56	—	52%	Cashed	+0.56	Cashed
Home Win	3.00	—	25%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.25	—	83%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	87%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.30	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.20	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.25u	−7% ROI