Match Atalanta vs Athletic Club January 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.00 — +14.0% better than the market.

Atalanta should control most phases at home, with sharper structure and more reliable game management against an Athletic side that has struggled to turn performances into wins lately. Expect the hosts to dictate territory and limit clean away chances, while the visitors look for set pieces and transitions. The overall profile leans to Atalanta avoiding defeat, with a fair chance the game stays on the tighter side unless an early goal opens it up.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 2.00 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 50% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ATA 3-4-2-1 · BIL 3-4-2-1

ATA · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · BIL

9 Scamacca

📊 Statistics

ATA 2 – 3 BIL

70%

Possession (%)

30%

1.99

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.74

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

65%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Athletic Club won 3–2 away at Atalanta. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 70% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 4, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +2.60 units (Brier 0.353).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.88	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.50	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.00	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.98	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.65	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.27	—	86%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.33	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	90%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.33	—	66%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	43%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.07	—	44%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.60	—	22%	Cashed	+2.60	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.40	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.20	—	14%	Cashed	+2.20	Cashed
Away Win	4.45	—	14%	Cashed	+3.45	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.96	—	44%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+2.60u	+15% ROI