Match Marseille vs Atalanta November 5, 2025 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Wed 05 Nov · 20:00
0:1
Full-time
Orange Vélodrome · Marseille
Referee José María Sánchez Martínez, Spain
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 65% · book 1.50
✓
Miss
Under 0.5
Under 0.5
AI 10% · book 16.50
✗
Hit
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 26% · book 4.50
✓
xG (open play)
0.88 – 1.25
Δ −0.37
AI accuracy
6 / 19
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.40 — +10.0% better than the market.
Marseille look the likelier side at home: better recent rhythm, stronger in duels, and more control in key zones. Atalanta have struggled to create away from home, so the game script points to Marseille not losing and a medium-tempo total.
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Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.40
✓ Cashed
AI 45%
Implied 42%
+1.40u
⛀ Lineups
MAR 5-4-1 · ATA 3-4-3
📊 Statistics
MAR 0
– 1 ATA
0.88
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.25
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
Match recap
Atalanta won 1–0 away at Marseille. At half-time it was 0–0.
In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 8, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 19 graded markets, 6 landed and 13 missed, for a net -3.70 units (Brier 0.236).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
19 · 6 W · 13 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.50 |
— |
65% |
Cashed |
+0.50 |
Cashed
|
| Under 0.5 |
16.50 |
— |
10% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 1.5 |
4.50 |
— |
26% |
Cashed |
+3.50 |
Cashed
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.40 |
— |
45% |
Cashed |
+1.40 |
Cashed
|
| Draw |
3.90 |
— |
27% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.50 |
— |
42% |
Cashed |
+1.50 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.40 |
— |
73% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Home Win |
2.10 |
— |
46% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.70 |
— |
55% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.60 |
— |
58% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.20 |
— |
74% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.80 |
— |
56% |
Cashed |
+0.80 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.60 |
— |
35% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home 0 |
1.60 |
— |
46% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
2.60 |
— |
27% |
Cashed |
+1.60 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home -1 |
3.00 |
— |
24% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home -2 |
6.60 |
— |
11% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away -1 |
1.40 |
— |
14% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away -2 |
1.10 |
— |
9% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 19 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
6 W · 13 L |
−3.70u |
−19% ROI |
