Match Napoli vs Sporting CP October 1, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.10 — +12.0% better than the market.

Napoli and Sporting CP both show strong recent form, with Sporting slightly ahead in momentum. Sporting has a quality edge and a more efficient attack, but Napoli benefits from playing at home and a solid defensive setup. The match is expected to be competitive with a slight lean towards a home win. Goals are likely, with both teams having the ability to score. The best value bets focus on Napoli to win or avoid defeat, and on both teams scoring.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 3.10 ✗ Lost

AI 36% Implied 32% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NAP 4-1-4-1 · SPO 4-2-3-1

NAP · 4-1-4-1 4-2-3-1 · SPO

19 Højlund ⚽

Subs used · NAP

69'

Lang ↑ ·

McTominay ↓

69'

Neres ↑ ·

Politano ↓

81'

Gilmour ↑ ·

Bruyne ↓

81'

Olivera ↑ ·

Gutiérrez ↓

90'

Lucca ↑ ·

Højlund ↓

Subs used · SPO

46'

Suárez ↑ ·

Catamo ↓

46'

Gonçalves ↑ ·

Trincão ↓

67'

Santos ↑ ·

Ioannidis ↓

67'

Debast ↑ ·

Quaresma ↓

78'

Morita ↑ ·

Simões ↓

📊 Statistics

NAP 2 – 1 SPO

51%

Possession (%)

49%

0.80

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.29

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 2 – 1

Rasmus Højlund

Assist · Kevin De Bruyne · 1–0

⚽

36'

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

Luis Javier Suárez ↓ · Geny Catamo ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

Pedro Gonçalves ↓ · Francisco Trincão ↑

Substitution 2

62'

⚽

Luis Javier Suárez (P)

Penalty · 1–1

67'

⇄

Alisson Santos ↓ · Fotis Ioannidis ↑

Substitution 3

67'

⇄

Zeno Debast ↓ · Eduardo Quaresma ↑

Substitution 4

Noa Lang ↓ · Scott McTominay ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

69'

David Neres ↓ · Matteo Politano ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

78'

⇄

Hidemasa Morita ↓ · João Simões ↑

Substitution 5

Rasmus Højlund

Assist · Kevin De Bruyne · 2–1

⚽

79'

Billy Gilmour ↓ · Kevin De Bruyne ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

81'

Mathías Olivera ↓ · Miguel Gutiérrez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

81'

Lorenzo Lucca ↓ · Rasmus Højlund ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Napoli beat Sporting CP 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 8, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2.

On the scoresheet: Rasmus Højlund (36'), Luis Javier Suárez (62'), Rasmus Højlund (79').

Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 3 landed and 2 missed, for a net +0.53 units (Brier 0.168).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

5 · 3 W · 2 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	3.10	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.88	—	58%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
AH Home -1	2.59	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.75	—	61%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Home Win	1.90	—	55%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Total · 5 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	3 W · 2 L	+0.53u	+11% ROI