Match Chelsea vs Benfica September 30, 2025 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Tue 30 Sep · 19:00
1:0
Full-time
Stamford Bridge · London
Referee Daniel Siebert, Germany
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 58% · book 1.70
✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.73
✗
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.69
✗
xG (open play)
0.93 – 0.86
Δ +0.07
AI accuracy
3 / 5
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.73 — +4.0% better than the market.
Chelsea shows a slight edge at home despite recent mixed form, while Benfica has been more consistent lately. The home side's attack matches reasonably against Benfica's defense, but Benfica's defense is notably stronger. Expect a competitive game with a moderate chance for Chelsea to win, a fair chance of a draw, and a lower chance for Benfica to win. Goals are likely, with a good chance both teams will score. The total goals market suggests a moderately open game with over 2.5 goals possible. Value lies in backing Chelsea to win and both teams to score.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 1.73
✗ Lost
AI 60%
Implied 58%
−1.00u
⛀ Lineups
CHE 4-3-3 · BEN 4-3-3
📊 Statistics
CHE 1
– 0 BEN
0.93
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.86
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
⏱ Match events
21 · 1 – 0
Richard Ríos
Own goal · 1–0
⚽
18'
34'
▮
Enzo Barrenechea
Yellow Card
Enzo Fernández
Yellow Card
▮
45+1'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Facundo Buonanotte
Yellow Card
▮
46'
Estêvão Willian ↓ · Facundo Buonanotte ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
54'
Jamie Gittens ↓ · Alejandro Garnacho ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
João Pedro ↓ · Tyrique George ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
61'
63'
▮
Fredrik Aursnes
Yellow Card
73'
⇄
Tomás Araújo ↓ · António Silva ↑
Substitution 1
77'
⇄
Leandro Barreiro ↓ · Richard Ríos ↑
Substitution 2
77'
⇄
Franjo Ivanović ↓ · Georgiy Sudakov ↑
Substitution 3
77'
⇄
Andreas Schjelderup ↓ · Dodi Lukebakio ↑
Substitution 4
Josh Acheampong ↓ · Benoît Badiashile ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
81'
Reece James ↓ · Malo Gusto ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
83'
▮
Nicolás Otamendi
Yellow Card
90'
⇄
Henrique Araújo ↓ · Fredrik Aursnes ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 0
Match recap
Chelsea beat Benfica 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: Richard Ríos (18'). João Pedro was sent off in the 90+6' minute.
Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 3 landed and 2 missed, for a net -0.85 units (Brier 0.180).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
5 · 3 W · 2 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Home Win |
1.70 |
— |
58% |
Cashed |
+0.70 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.73 |
— |
60% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
— |
55% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home 0 |
1.26 |
— |
80% |
Cashed |
+0.26 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.19 |
— |
85% |
Cashed |
+0.19 |
Cashed
|
| Total · 5 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
3 W · 2 L |
−0.85u |
−17% ROI |
